CAJ | 학술논문

随着我国人口老龄化日益严重，学界和公众关于调整“一胎”生育管制政策的呼声日高。那么不同的人13：2政策到底会对中国经济产生多大的影响？按户主年龄和家庭规模大小对家庭类型细分为12组，并引入动态CGE模型中，定量分析了不同人口政策调整对中国经济增长和结构的影响。完善单独、推行二孩晚育政策下的基准情景的人均GDP水平最高；执行严厉计划生育政策的LOW情景的GDP增长率和人均GDP水平最低；完全放宽人口政策的HIGH情景，虽然经济增长速度较快，但是承受着巨大的资源环境压力和人均GDP水平不如基准情景。从人均GDP和环境压力角度来看，我国应该完善“单独”政策，适当推行“二孩晚育”的人口政策，既有利于经济的发展，又能适当减轻社会环境的承载压力。
수착아국인구노령화일익엄중，학계화공음관우조정“일태”생육관제정책적호성일고。나요불동적인13：2정책도저회대중국경제산생다대적영향？안호주년령화가정규모대소대가정류형세분위12조，병인입동태CGE모형중，정량분석료불동인구정책조정대중국경제증장화결구적영향。완선단독、추행이해만육정책하적기준정경적인균GDP수평최고；집행엄려계화생육정책적LOW정경적GDP증장솔화인균GDP수평최저；완전방관인구정책적HIGH정경，수연경제증장속도교쾌，단시승수착거대적자원배경압력화인균GDP수평불여기준정경。종인균GDP화배경압력각도래간，아국응해완선“단독”정책，괄당추행“이해만육”적인구정책，기유리우경제적발전，우능괄당감경사회배경적승재압력。
With the growing population aging in China,the academic community and the publicask for the adjustment of the one - child birth control policy. It is an important issue how different population policy affects the Chinese economy. According to the head of household age and family size of the household, we divided the household sector in the CGE model in to 12 groups, and analyze the impact of different policy on the China＇ s economic growth and structure using CGE model. The research results show thatthe baseline scenario which the government im- plement the two children policy has the highest level of per capital GDP, the Low scenario which implement stringently the＂ one child＂ family planning policy has the lowest GDP growth rate and level of GDP per capita, when the government completely relax the population policies in HIGH scenario, economic growth of High scenario is the highest , but per capita GDP level is not as good as the baseline scenario. Moreover, the High scenario put huge pressure on the environment＇ s resources. Therefore, from the perspective of per capita GDP and environmental pressures, China should implement population policy in the baseline scenario, it isnot only conducive to improve economic development, but also to reduce the pressure on environment.