CAJ | 학술논문

自20世纪90年代中期以来，全球范围内出现了缔结自由贸易协定（FTA）的浪潮，形成了错综复杂的网络化发展趋势。本文旨在从复杂网络角度对全球FTA的形成机制进行研究。首先通过构建全球FTA网络，对其网络特征进行描述性统计和分析。此后利用离散选择模型进行计量分析，结果发现除传统的地理和经济因素外，FTA的网络结构特征也是其形成与演化的重要原因，而且加入制度、语言和历史文化等因素进行敏感性分析，证实模型的结果非常稳健。最后是全文的结论及对中国的启示性意义。
자20세기90년대중기이래，전구범위내출현료체결자유무역협정（FTA）적랑조，형성료착종복잡적망락화발전추세。본문지재종복잡망락각도대전구FTA적형성궤제진행연구。수선통과구건전구FTA망락，대기망락특정진행묘술성통계화분석。차후이용리산선택모형진행계량분석，결과발현제전통적지리화경제인소외，FTA적망락결구특정야시기형성여연화적중요원인，이차가입제도、어언화역사문화등인소진행민감성분석，증실모형적결과비상은건。최후시전문적결론급대중국적계시성의의。
Free Trade Agreements（FTA） have proliferated globally since the mid-990s. This paper aims to analyze the formation mechanism of global FTA network based on the complex network science. Firstly, a network structure is set up by the relevant statistical data and the network statistical properties are analyzed. Secondly, by the econometric analysis of panel logit model, it is found that, in addition to traditional geographic and economic determinants, FTA network properties have important impact on the formation and evolution of FTA. Thirdly, models are revised by adding institution, culture and history determinants, and it is proved that the findings are very robust to various econometric specifications. Finally, conclusions and implication for China are provided.