江苏社会科学
江囌社會科學
강소사회과학
Jiangsu Social Sciences
2013年
1期
6~15
,共null页
信息经济时代 后信息经济时代 弱势增长周期 全球经济 演变机理
信息經濟時代 後信息經濟時代 弱勢增長週期 全毬經濟 縯變機理
신식경제시대 후신식경제시대 약세증장주기 전구경제 연변궤리
the Information Economy Age; the Post-information Economy Age; vulnerable low-speed growth cycle; global economy; developmental mechanism
当前,世界经济进入一个典型的＂弱势低速增长周期＂。本文基于美国、欧洲、日本、印度等国家和地区的考察,研究发现：从历次全球经济周期更替的规律来看,这一弱势周期的形成归结于全球缺乏新的新兴产业尤其是支柱性新兴产业的支撑。20世纪50年代以来众多国家和地区尤其是美国最近30多年信息产业与信息经济的演变历程表明,信息经济时代与后信息经济时代的＂拐点＂已经到来。正是这一拐点的到来或者说信息经济的衰退构成了全球经济下滑的根本原因。基于这一视角的经济周期演变机理的分析表明,后信息经济时代全球经济周期的交替、更新需要与之相匹配的新兴产业的培育与支柱产业的形成,这也构成当前全球面临的共同战略任务,进而决定了全球将进入一个＂典型的共同治理探索期＂。
噹前,世界經濟進入一箇典型的＂弱勢低速增長週期＂。本文基于美國、歐洲、日本、印度等國傢和地區的攷察,研究髮現：從歷次全毬經濟週期更替的規律來看,這一弱勢週期的形成歸結于全毬缺乏新的新興產業尤其是支柱性新興產業的支撐。20世紀50年代以來衆多國傢和地區尤其是美國最近30多年信息產業與信息經濟的縯變歷程錶明,信息經濟時代與後信息經濟時代的＂枴點＂已經到來。正是這一枴點的到來或者說信息經濟的衰退構成瞭全毬經濟下滑的根本原因。基于這一視角的經濟週期縯變機理的分析錶明,後信息經濟時代全毬經濟週期的交替、更新需要與之相匹配的新興產業的培育與支柱產業的形成,這也構成噹前全毬麵臨的共同戰略任務,進而決定瞭全毬將進入一箇＂典型的共同治理探索期＂。
당전,세계경제진입일개전형적＂약세저속증장주기＂。본문기우미국、구주、일본、인도등국가화지구적고찰,연구발현：종력차전구경제주기경체적규률래간,저일약세주기적형성귀결우전구결핍신적신흥산업우기시지주성신흥산업적지탱。20세기50년대이래음다국가화지구우기시미국최근30다년신식산업여신식경제적연변역정표명,신식경제시대여후신식경제시대적＂괴점＂이경도래。정시저일괴점적도래혹자설신식경제적쇠퇴구성료전구경제하활적근본원인。기우저일시각적경제주기연변궤리적분석표명,후신식경제시대전구경제주기적교체、경신수요여지상필배적신흥산업적배육여지주산업적형성,저야구성당전전구면림적공동전략임무,진이결정료전구장진입일개＂전형적공동치리탐색기＂。
Currently,the world economy has entered a typical ＂vulnerable low-speed growth cycle＂.The present research,based on the investigation into such countries and areas as the USA,the Europe,Japan and India,reveals that the coming of the cycle is due to global lack of new rising industries,especially pillar industries,in light of the previous changing course of global economic cycles.The changing course of many countries and areas since the 1950s,especially that of information industry and information economy in the USA in the last 30 years,shows the advent of the ＂turning point＂ between the Information Economy Age and the Post-information Economy Age.It is the advent of the turning point,or rather the decline of information economy,that constitutes the fundamental reason for the global economic depression.The analysis of the developmental mechanism of economic cycles from the above perspective suggests that the alternation of global economic cycles in the Post-information Economy Age demands the development of matching burgeoning industries and pillar industries,which is a common strategic task the present world is facing and further results in the entry of the world into a ＂typical exploratory period of joint management＂.
