CAJ | 학술논문

从全国和区域两个层面对我国农村社保支出与农村居民消费的关系进行实证检验。先选取1978-2011年的时间序列数据,采用可变参数状态空间模型分析社会保障制度变迁对我国农村居民消费的总体影响,接下来选取1995-2011年的省际数据,采用动态面板数据模型分析社保支出对农村居民消费的区域效应。研究表明,我国农村社会保障制度处于不断调整的动态平衡之中,社会保障支出总体上对农村居民消费起到了挤入作用,但对消费的拉动作用存在着明显的区域性差异。
종전국화구역량개층면대아국농촌사보지출여농촌거민소비적관계진행실증검험。선선취1978-2011년적시간서렬수거,채용가변삼수상태공간모형분석사회보장제도변천대아국농촌거민소비적총체영향,접하래선취1995-2011년적성제수거,채용동태면판수거모형분석사보지출대농촌거민소비적구역효응。연구표명,아국농촌사회보장제도처우불단조정적동태평형지중,사회보장지출총체상대농촌거민소비기도료제입작용,단대소비적랍동작용존재착명현적구역성차이。
Based on the data of national and regional levels,this paper does empirical analysis on the relations between the social security expenditure and the rural consumption in China.By the State Space Model with variable parameter analysis using the time series of national data in 1978-2011,it is showed that since the Chinese Economic Reform the overall impact of the social security system on the rural residents’ consumption is notable.And,by the analysis of dynamic panel model using 1995-2011 provincial data of China,the regional social security expenditure has a crowding-in effect on rural residents’ consumption and has improved the rural residential consumption in the long run.Because of the different levels of economic development in the east,central and west areas of China,the effects of social security expenditure on rural consumption are obviously different,which shows that the regional policy is needed during the development of social security system in China.