CAJ | 학술논문

经济转型意味着产业增长要从投资和出口的需求拉动转向内需拉动，本文根据用途的不同，将钢材区分为消费拉动型和投资拉动型两大类，梳理了投资活动和国内消费与钢铁下游产业之间的对应关系，并通过实证分析验证了消费拉动型钢材与汽车和家电产量之间存在的长期均衡关系，也验证了投资拉动型钢材与全社会建筑施工面积和主要机械设备产量之间存在的长期均衡关系。基于对钢材引致需求结构特性及其与经济转型关系的分析，本文对未来引致需求结构变动下中国钢铁产业发展趋势作出判断，并对政府产业政策和厂商策略提出建议。
경제전형의미착산업증장요종투자화출구적수구랍동전향내수랍동，본문근거용도적불동，장강재구분위소비랍동형화투자랍동형량대류，소리료투자활동화국내소비여강철하유산업지간적대응관계，병통과실증분석험증료소비랍동형강재여기차화가전산량지간존재적장기균형관계，야험증료투자랍동형강재여전사회건축시공면적화주요궤계설비산량지간존재적장기균형관계。기우대강재인치수구결구특성급기여경제전형관계적분석，본문대미래인치수구결구변동하중국강철산업발전추세작출판단，병대정부산업정책화엄상책략제출건의。
China＇s economic development has entered a new stage of transition, and the restructuring is the core at the industry level. Taking the perspective on the driving force from the demand side, the meaning of economic restructuring is that the development model of China＇s economy should be changed from mainly rely on investment and exports to domestic demand. The development of steel industry in China in recent years has typically mainly driven by investment and is facing big challenges in the background of the restructuring, the paper empirically studies the contribution of investment as well as demand as driving forces by investigating the relationship between the derived demand of steel and the development of downstream industries, and makes some conclusion on the trend of the structural change in the future. The conclusion has important meaning not only for government industrial policy making but also for the business strategic plan. Through the analysis of the ＂Demand chain＂ ,that is, the varieties of steel - downstream industries -investment or final consumption, the paper divides the steel into two categories, investment-driven and consumptiondriv- en. From the data the paper finds that the output proportion of investment-driven steel to consumption-driven steel is 80：20 and stable under traditional development model in long term. It is interesting that although the proportion of investment-driven steel increased to much higher than 80 in 2009 because of the 4 trillion investment plan pushed by government since the end of 2008, it is only effective for one year. Then, through empirical analysis, the paper verifies the long-term equilibrium relationship between the consumption-driven steel and the output of cars and home appliances ; it also verifies the long-term equilibrium relationship between the investment-driven steel and the construction area of whole society and the output of main mechanical equipments. It reveals that the output elasticity of demand of investment-driven steel to the construction area of whole society and the output of main mechanical equipments is 0. 5721 and 0. 2122 respectively, and the sum is 0. 7842 ; while the output elasticity of demand of consumption-driven steel to the output of ears and home appliances is 0. 2665 and 0. 5859 respectively, the sum is 0. 8524. Combined with the structure characteristics of derived demand of steel, the outcome of the empirical study has important enlightening significance. Based on the derived demand structure of steel and its relation with economic restructuring, the paper analyzes the development trend of steel industry in China on the basis of future derived demand structure changing in the future. The effects of China＇s economy restructuring on the development of steel industry may lead to two results ： one is that the slowdown of the rate of economic growth will make the growth of total demand of steel slower and even lead to a decline in its absolute size ; the other is when domestic consumption plays an increasingly important role among the three major driving forces, the derived demand structure of steel may have significant changes ,which can lead to a significant change for the demand of different varieties of steel. Energy. and environmental constraints is very rigid in the long-term development of the Chinese economy, as one of high energy consumption and highly polluting industries, the constraint for iron and steel industry is even more rigid. It is worth stressing that, for basic raw material industry like steel, energy and environmental constraints not only come from the supply side, but also from the demand changes. In the long run, the pullback of investment demand and the structural change of consumption demand will inevitably resulting in a decline in the growth of the steel＇s derived demand, and the decline of the absolute demand scale may also appear in the near future. Therefore, the government＇s industrial policy and manufacturer＇s capacity and output strategies related to the product structure are likely to need to adjust as soon as possible according to the plan. The analysis framework of the paper can be generalized to other similar industries. The government＇s industrial policy should pay more attention to the demand side, and the market mechanism need to play the effective role, so as to ensure the effectiveness of industrial policy and policy goal.