CAJ | 학술논문

为了研究中国期刊出版总量的增长趋势，为出版产业制定产业政策提供理学依据，根据中国出版网公布的数据，以1979-2011年中国期刊的出版总量为研究样本，采用一元线性回归和二次多项式非线性回归两种方法对中国期刊出版总量的统计数据进行了定量分析和研究。从期刊出版总量（种数）情况来看，改革开放30多年来，中国期刊出版总量随着时间的变化大致呈现二次曲线递增态势。根据研究结果，给出了2012-2016年中国期刊出版总量的预测。预计2016年，我国期刊出版的总量将达到9779种。
위료연구중국기간출판총량적증장추세，위출판산업제정산업정책제공이학의거，근거중국출판망공포적수거，이1979-2011년중국기간적출판총량위연구양본，채용일원선성회귀화이차다항식비선성회귀량충방법대중국기간출판총량적통계수거진행료정량분석화연구。종기간출판총량（충수）정황래간，개혁개방30다년래，중국기간출판총량수착시간적변화대치정현이차곡선체증태세。근거연구결과，급출료2012-2016년중국기간출판총량적예측。예계2016년，아국기간출판적총량장체도9779충。
In order to study the trend of growth of the total Chinese journals published for the publishing industry to develop industrial policy Science basis, according to the data released by China Publishing Network for 1979--2011 years Chinese journals published data on total study sample, using a linear regression and quadratic polynomial nonlinear regression are two ways the total Chinese Journals published the amount of statistical data for quantitative analysis and research. From journals published total （number of species） situation, the reform and opening up 30 years total Chinese journals published a quadratic increasing trend over time roughly. Based on the results, we calculate the forecast of the total 2012--2016 Chinese journals publishing the annual growth rate of the final issue. The total amount of journals publishing is expected to reach 9779 kinds in 2016.