CAJ | 학술논문

当前,在世界经济低迷之势一时难以扭转的背景下,我国经济发展的支撑更加集中在内需上。文章采用我国1978-2011年居民人均消费支出和社会保障人均支出数据,通过协整检验和误差修正模型等计量方法,检验社会保障支出对于居民消费的影响。计量分析的结果表明,拉动居民消费的关键提高养老保障水平、平衡城乡基本医疗保险发展、增强国民的消费信心,从而引导和促进居民的消费需求。
당전,재세계경제저미지세일시난이뉴전적배경하,아국경제발전적지탱경가집중재내수상。문장채용아국1978-2011년거민인균소비지출화사회보장인균지출수거,통과협정검험화오차수정모형등계량방법,검험사회보장지출대우거민소비적영향。계량분석적결과표명,랍동거민소비적관건제고양로보장수평、평형성향기본의료보험발전、증강국민적소비신심,종이인도화촉진거민적소비수구。
At present, in the context of making it difficult to reverse the trend of world economic down- turn, Chings economic development support is more concentrated in the domestic demand. The articles use Chings 1978--2011 annual per capita consumption expenditure and per capita spending on social se- curity data, measured by unit root test and error correction model to test the effects per capita expendi- ture of social secuity on residents consumption. Econometric analysis results show that, boost the resi- dents＂ consumption is the key to improve the level of pension insurance, balance urban and rural basic medical development, it can enhance the national consumer confidence, so as to guide and promote the consumption demand of residents.