CAJ | 학술논문

在采用SVAR模型识别货币政策冲击的基础上，本文考察了数量型与价格型两类货币政策工具的调控效果。实证研究发现，（1）货币供给水平政策的实施较为随意，宏观调控效果较差；（2）货币增长率政策具有盯住通胀的规则性，对产出的效应显著而持续；（3）利率政策同时盯住通胀和产出，虽然总体调控效果较好，但是对通胀的影响正负交错。基于中国货币新凯恩斯模型的量化评估得出两点结论，一是相对于数量型货币政策，利率政策更能有效的调控产出和通胀，且不易引发经济波动；二是随着利率市场化改革的推进，利率政策应更多盯住通胀。据此，我们给出了在利率市场化改革进程中，中国有效货币政策的规则设计。
재채용SVAR모형식별화폐정책충격적기출상，본문고찰료수량형여개격형량류화폐정책공구적조공효과。실증연구발현，（1）화폐공급수평정책적실시교위수의，굉관조공효과교차；（2）화폐증장솔정책구유정주통창적규칙성，대산출적효응현저이지속；（3）리솔정책동시정주통창화산출，수연총체조공효과교호，단시대통창적영향정부교착。기우중국화폐신개은사모형적양화평고득출량점결론，일시상대우수량형화폐정책，리솔정책경능유효적조공산출화통창，차불역인발경제파동；이시수착리솔시장화개혁적추진，리솔정책응경다정주통창。거차，아문급출료재리솔시장화개혁진정중，중국유효화폐정책적규칙설계。
Based on China＇s macroeconomic quarterly data, the paper adopts structural vector autoregression （SVAR） model, and applies Narrative method to indentify particular monetary policy shock, then explores the corresponding c effects by impulse response function for quantity - based instruments and price - based instruments. Several empirical facts reach：（a） monetary supply policy is implemented randomly, the ef- fectiveness of which is relatively limited; （b） monetary growth rate policy is implemented by pegging inflation rate, showing significant and persistent effects on output; （c） nominal interest rate rule is pegging inflation and real output gap, showing mixed effects of promoting output and keeping staggered price stability. Furthermore, the paper estimates China＇s monetary policy, and sets up the monetary New Keynesian model, in order to evalu- ate the effectiveness under marketization interest rate, suggesting that compared to quantity monetary policy, the nominal interest rate rule is endowed with more effectiveness on controlling output and inflation, and with less e- conomy fluctuations; and the interest rate policy should mainly target inflation. On this basis, the paper designs effective monetary policy for China＇s ongoing interest rate marketization reform.