金融研究
金融研究
금융연구
Journal of Financial Research
2013年
8期
30~43
,共null页
外商直接投资 人民币实际汇率 边限协整检验方法
外商直接投資 人民幣實際彙率 邊限協整檢驗方法
외상직접투자 인민폐실제회솔 변한협정검험방법
Foreign direct investment, RMB real exchange rate, Bounds testing approach of cointegration.
以往认为FDI对实际汇率影响较小的观点多基于FDI主要流向贸易部门，对不可贸易品价格影响较小这一认识。本文考察了我国贸易和不可贸易部门的FDI流入对人民币实际汇率的影响。结果发现：流入贸易部门的FDI倾向于引发人民币实际贬值，而流入不可贸易部门的FDI对人民币实际汇率的影响则有多种结果：金融业和批发零售业的FDI流入显著引发人民币实际升值，而建筑业FDI流人却促使人民币实际贬值，房地产业FDI流人对人民币实际汇率的影响不显著。同时，流入不可贸易部门的FDI对贸易品价格上涨和人民币名义升值有显著影响，这表明该部门的FDI流入可能会引发“荷兰病”。
以往認為FDI對實際彙率影響較小的觀點多基于FDI主要流嚮貿易部門，對不可貿易品價格影響較小這一認識。本文攷察瞭我國貿易和不可貿易部門的FDI流入對人民幣實際彙率的影響。結果髮現：流入貿易部門的FDI傾嚮于引髮人民幣實際貶值，而流入不可貿易部門的FDI對人民幣實際彙率的影響則有多種結果：金融業和批髮零售業的FDI流入顯著引髮人民幣實際升值，而建築業FDI流人卻促使人民幣實際貶值，房地產業FDI流人對人民幣實際彙率的影響不顯著。同時，流入不可貿易部門的FDI對貿易品價格上漲和人民幣名義升值有顯著影響，這錶明該部門的FDI流入可能會引髮“荷蘭病”。
이왕인위FDI대실제회솔영향교소적관점다기우FDI주요류향무역부문，대불가무역품개격영향교소저일인식。본문고찰료아국무역화불가무역부문적FDI류입대인민폐실제회솔적영향。결과발현：류입무역부문적FDI경향우인발인민폐실제폄치，이류입불가무역부문적FDI대인민폐실제회솔적영향칙유다충결과：금융업화비발령수업적FDI류입현저인발인민폐실제승치，이건축업FDI류인각촉사인민폐실제폄치，방지산업FDI류인대인민폐실제회솔적영향불현저。동시，류입불가무역부문적FDI대무역품개격상창화인민폐명의승치유현저영향，저표명해부문적FDI류입가능회인발“하란병”。
The FDI has been considered to have little impact on real exchange rates. However, this argument is mostly established on a perspective that most of the FDI flows into tradable sectors rather than non - tradable sectors. The paper tries to investigate the effects of FDI in different sectors on the real exchange rate of RMB. The finding shows that the FDI flowing into the tradable sectors tends to lead a real depreciation of RMB, while that flows into non - tradable sectors has mixed effects on the real exchange rate of RMB. Specifically, the FDI flowing into the financial, wholesale, and retail industries causes RMB appreciate, whereas those into construc- tion industry has an opposite impact. However, we fail to find significant result in the real estate industry. Mo- reover, the finding indicates that FDI flowing into non -tradable sectors might induce the ＂Dutch disease＂.
