工业技术经济
工業技術經濟
공업기술경제
Industrial Technology & Economy
2013年
9期
125~137
,共null页
固定电价 可交易的绿色证书 配额制 生物质发电产业 SD模型
固定電價 可交易的綠色證書 配額製 生物質髮電產業 SD模型
고정전개 가교역적록색증서 배액제 생물질발전산업 SD모형
feed- in tariff; tradable green certificate; renewable portfolio standard; biomass power industry; system dynamics model
“十二五”期间，中国将大力推进可再生能源配额交易制度建设，以实现可再生能源发电产业发展由固定电价政策的支持向政策与市场共同作用的发展机制的变迁。本文以中国生物质发电产业为例，构建了固定电价与配额交易下的产业发展系统动力学模型，模拟分析了其对生物质发电产业发展的影响机理及政策效果并提出了适合中国国情的配额交易制度建设的科学对策。结果表明：现行的固定电价政策与电价水平，难以对生物质发电厂商产生有效的激励；当施行配额交易时，合理的生物质发电配额比例和绿色证书的基准价格（如本文研究所得的2％的配额比例和0．094元／kWh的基准价格），有助于厂商获得规模经济带来的全部收益并保证厂商的适度投资和技术研发投入，从而实现产业的规模化和产业化发展；较之固定电价政策，配额交易制度对中国生物质发电产业发展的激励效应更为直接和有效，也更接近于实现政府规划确定的产业发展目标。
“十二五”期間，中國將大力推進可再生能源配額交易製度建設，以實現可再生能源髮電產業髮展由固定電價政策的支持嚮政策與市場共同作用的髮展機製的變遷。本文以中國生物質髮電產業為例，構建瞭固定電價與配額交易下的產業髮展繫統動力學模型，模擬分析瞭其對生物質髮電產業髮展的影響機理及政策效果併提齣瞭適閤中國國情的配額交易製度建設的科學對策。結果錶明：現行的固定電價政策與電價水平，難以對生物質髮電廠商產生有效的激勵；噹施行配額交易時，閤理的生物質髮電配額比例和綠色證書的基準價格（如本文研究所得的2％的配額比例和0．094元／kWh的基準價格），有助于廠商穫得規模經濟帶來的全部收益併保證廠商的適度投資和技術研髮投入，從而實現產業的規模化和產業化髮展；較之固定電價政策，配額交易製度對中國生物質髮電產業髮展的激勵效應更為直接和有效，也更接近于實現政府規劃確定的產業髮展目標。
“십이오”기간，중국장대력추진가재생능원배액교역제도건설，이실현가재생능원발전산업발전유고정전개정책적지지향정책여시장공동작용적발전궤제적변천。본문이중국생물질발전산업위례，구건료고정전개여배액교역하적산업발전계통동역학모형，모의분석료기대생물질발전산업발전적영향궤리급정책효과병제출료괄합중국국정적배액교역제도건설적과학대책。결과표명：현행적고정전개정책여전개수평，난이대생물질발전엄상산생유효적격려；당시행배액교역시，합리적생물질발전배액비례화록색증서적기준개격（여본문연구소득적2％적배액비례화0．094원／kWh적기준개격），유조우엄상획득규모경제대래적전부수익병보증엄상적괄도투자화기술연발투입，종이실현산업적규모화화산업화발전；교지고정전개정책，배액교역제도대중국생물질발전산업발전적격려효응경위직접화유효，야경접근우실현정부규화학정적산업발전목표。
In this paler, the biomass power industry being an example, a system dynamics model of industrial development under the feed- in tariff and Tradable Green Certificate is bulk. We put forward a set of scientific countermeasures for the implementation of the Tradable Green Certificate system suitable for China by the simulation and analysis of the impact mechanism and the effects of policies of feed- in tariff and Tradable Green Certificate system acting on biomass power industry. The results show that： it is difficult for the current feed - in tariff or tariff level to offer an effective incentive for biomass power plants; in the implementation of the Tradable Green Certificate system, the govemment should make a reasonable benchmark- price and an appropriate biomass power generation quota proportion, which will help the plants to get the full benefits from scale economy and to ensure the modest investment and R＆D investment in biomass power industry, so that the development goal of industrialization and production of scale for biomaas power industry will be achieved; compared with the Feed- in Law, the Tradable Green Certificate system will not only help to change the driving force of renewable energy industry development institutionally from policy support to policy and market interaction, hut also help to offer an incentive to the hiomuss power in- dustry more directly and effectively for getting closer to achieve the government＇s planning objective.
