CAJ | 학술논문

文章应用协整方程、脉冲响应函数等动态计量经济研究方法，实证分析了法国对华直接投资与中法贸易之间的动态关系及其互动影响。研究结果表明：从总体来看，法国投资和中法贸易有着互补的促进关系，先后出现进口诱发效应、出口诱发效应和返销效应；从协整方程和脉冲响应函数来看，法国在华投资和我国出口法国贸易之间的正向影响效应尤其明显，表明我国对外资企业实行的“出口导向”政策起到了预想的作用；最后，由VAR模型下的脉冲响应和方差分解分析来看，法国对华直接投资相对于中法贸易，存在明显的滞后现象，但最终影响效应凸显，并维持在较高的正区间。表明两国的投资和贸易虽在波折中前行，但随着互信的增加，其正向作用最终显现。未来两国有着较强的互补性，其经贸合作前景广阔。
문장응용협정방정、맥충향응함수등동태계량경제연구방법，실증분석료법국대화직접투자여중법무역지간적동태관계급기호동영향。연구결과표명：종총체래간，법국투자화중법무역유착호보적촉진관계，선후출현진구유발효응、출구유발효응화반소효응；종협정방정화맥충향응함수래간，법국재화투자화아국출구법국무역지간적정향영향효응우기명현，표명아국대외자기업실행적“출구도향”정책기도료예상적작용；최후，유VAR모형하적맥충향응화방차분해분석래간，법국대화직접투자상대우중법무역，존재명현적체후현상，단최종영향효응철현，병유지재교고적정구간。표명량국적투자화무역수재파절중전행，단수착호신적증가，기정향작용최종현현。미래량국유착교강적호보성，기경무합작전경엄활。
In this paper, cointegration analysis, Granger causality test and impulse response function and other dynamic econometric are used to analyze the French direct investment in China and the Sino-French trade relations and the interaction between the effects of dynamic. The results show that： French direct in- vestment in China and China＇s export trade in France exist a long-term equilibrium relationship and the one-way causality. However, this mutual influence, there is obvious hysteresis. French direct investment in China on China＇ s exports to France, in the beginning, will have a negative influence, then begin to translate into positive effects and will maintain at a higher positive interval.