CAJ | 학술논문

基于全国省级动态面板数据，运用系统广义矩估计方法，对服务贸易的就业效应及其影响因素进行实证研究。结果表明，服务出口对就业具有正向促进作用，进口对就业具有负向影响，但是出口就业的促进效应大于进口就业的替代效应。第三产业产出增长能够显著促进就业，而工资、国有企业就业人数占比会显著抑制就业，利率影响不显著。如何大力发展服务贸易等由此成为促进就业增长的有力措施。
기우전국성급동태면판수거，운용계통엄의구고계방법，대복무무역적취업효응급기영향인소진행실증연구。결과표명，복무출구대취업구유정향촉진작용，진구대취업구유부향영향，단시출구취업적촉진효응대우진구취업적체대효응。제삼산업산출증장능구현저촉진취업，이공자、국유기업취업인수점비회현저억제취업，리솔영향불현저。여하대력발전복무무역등유차성위촉진취업증장적유력조시。
Based on China＇ s provincial data and applying the method of GMM estimation, this paper conducts an empirical study of the impact of service trade on employment. The result identifies that the export of service trade has a positive function of promotion on employment, while import has a negative impact. But the promotion effect of export is greater than the substitution effect of import. In addition, the growth of service output plays a key role in the expansion of employment, while wage and the proportion of employment in state owned enterprise have negative impact on employment. Furthermore, the interest rate has no significant impact on employment. The paper puts forward policies such as developing service trade to improve the growth of employment.