CAJ | 학술논문

公约谈判20年见证了不同缔约方力量的消长、谈判集团的“碎片化”和国际减排机制的“退化”。随着当前国际经济和政治体系进入深刻的变化和转型过程中。国际气候谈判也在德班会议后迈入了转折阶段。为构建新的全球气候治理框架．各国纷纷提出各自的构想，欧盟一贯倡导“自上而下”的“具有法律约束力的全球统一减排框架”安排．以很强的全球协调性、得到普遍认可和追求的总体目标、分阶段目标和时间进程表、共同遵守的规则机制、严格的进度报告和核查机制以及遵约机制为其核心（京都议定书是这种机制的代表）；美国倾向于“自下而上”减排机制并进一步提出“轴辐式协议”概念。没有或很少涉及到全球协调。各国自行安排相关行动．进展情况由国内核查制度来确定而不接受国际核查，也没有国际遵约机制约束。应对气候变化的紧迫性决定公约下的“自上而下”机制还应发挥主导作用，京都议定书第一承诺期主要发达国家缔约方在低碳发展方面所取得的积极成效以及发达国家非议定书缔约方在减排方面的“不作为”是典型的例证。从20年来国际气候谈判的路径和轨迹分析可以看出。气候变化谈判是一个复杂、多边和持续的政府间互动过程。既涉及控制竞争更涉及到协调合作。气候变化问题作为公共问题。是属于全人类的问题，只有达成“契约解”，即形成一系列共同遵守并执行的法律制度。“技术解”才会真正发挥作用。建议中国应该站在战略高度。积极参与和推进全球气候治理进程，有力地推动全球气候治理朝着更加合理、有效和有序的方向发展。
공약담판20년견증료불동체약방역량적소장、담판집단적“쇄편화”화국제감배궤제적“퇴화”。수착당전국제경제화정치체계진입심각적변화화전형과정중。국제기후담판야재덕반회의후매입료전절계단。위구건신적전구기후치리광가．각국분분제출각자적구상，구맹일관창도“자상이하”적“구유법률약속력적전구통일감배광가”안배．이흔강적전구협조성、득도보편인가화추구적총체목표、분계단목표화시간진정표、공동준수적규칙궤제、엄격적진도보고화핵사궤제이급준약궤제위기핵심（경도의정서시저충궤제적대표）；미국경향우“자하이상”감배궤제병진일보제출“축복식협의”개념。몰유혹흔소섭급도전구협조。각국자행안배상관행동．진전정황유국내핵사제도래학정이불접수국제핵사，야몰유국제준약궤제약속。응대기후변화적긴박성결정공약하적“자상이하”궤제환응발휘주도작용，경도의정서제일승낙기주요발체국가체약방재저탄발전방면소취득적적겁성효이급발체국가비의정서체약방재감배방면적“불작위”시전형적예증。종20년래국제기후담판적로경화궤적분석가이간출。기후변화담판시일개복잡、다변화지속적정부간호동과정。기섭급공제경쟁경섭급도협조합작。기후변화문제작위공공문제。시속우전인류적문제，지유체성“계약해”，즉형성일계렬공동준수병집행적법률제도。“기술해”재회진정발휘작용。건의중국응해참재전략고도。적겁삼여화추진전구기후치리진정，유력지추동전구기후치리조착경가합리、유효화유서적방향발전。
Currently, the international political and economic system has entered a crucial stage of profound change and transformation process and also for the two decades of international climate change negotiations after Durban Conference with growth and decline of the different forces of the parties, the ＂fragmentation＂ of the negotiation groups and ＂degradation＂ of the international emission reduction mechanism. To build a new global climate governance framework, the European Union has consistently advocated ＂top-down＂ and ＂legally binding framework of global emission reduction＂, and strongly global coordination, widely recognized objectives, overall and time-phased targets, common rules, strict measurement, report and verification mechanism and compliance mechanisms （Kyoto Protocol） as its core. The United States tend to ＂ bottom-up＂ emission reduction mechanism and further proposed ＂ hub-spoke agreement＂, and involving little or no global coordination, countries make their own emission reduction arrangements, the emission reduction verification progress determined by the domestic system rather than international verification, and no binding from international compliance mechanism. The ＂top-down＂ emission reduction mechanism should still play a leading role for addressing the urgent climate change issue. Otherwise, developed countries want to transfer their historical responsibility of emission reductions to developing countries by Durban enhanced action platform, and continue to maintain the international political and economic order dominated by developed countries. This paper reviews the climate change negotiation path and trajectories of the past two decades, and climate change negotiation is a complex, multilateral and interactive process with regard to coordination and competition. The climate change issue as a public issue belongs to all mankind, and the ＂technical solution＂ of climate change issue can play a role under completing the ＂contractual solution＂ of forming a series of the legal system. Finally it is recommended that China should actively participate in and promote a more rational, efficient and orderly global climate change governance.