中国人口资源与环境
中國人口資源與環境
중국인구자원여배경
China Polulation.Resources and Environment
2013年
9期
34~41
,共null页
假设抽取法 碳排放 碳关联
假設抽取法 碳排放 碳關聯
가설추취법 탄배방 탄관련
hypothetical extraction method; carbon emissions; carbon linkage
本文以中国产业部门为研究对象.针对2007年中国投入产出表和能源消费量数据,运用假设抽取法计算11个产业群的总碳关联、前向碳关联和后向碳关联,并将碳关联区分为内部效应、混合效应、净后向效应和净前向效应,进一步分解了各产业群在净后向供给和净前向需求中吸收或转移的碳排放.研究发现炼焦化工金属产品制造业是碳关联最为突出的部门.电力燃气及水的生产供应业的碳转移量最大。碳排放的产生源于产业系统的能源消费,产业群的碳关联实际上反映了能源需求在产业中的分布和转移。因此.要科学合理地规划能源消费并加大清洁能源的研发和使用。以便有效地降低产业系统的碳排放。
本文以中國產業部門為研究對象.針對2007年中國投入產齣錶和能源消費量數據,運用假設抽取法計算11箇產業群的總碳關聯、前嚮碳關聯和後嚮碳關聯,併將碳關聯區分為內部效應、混閤效應、淨後嚮效應和淨前嚮效應,進一步分解瞭各產業群在淨後嚮供給和淨前嚮需求中吸收或轉移的碳排放.研究髮現煉焦化工金屬產品製造業是碳關聯最為突齣的部門.電力燃氣及水的生產供應業的碳轉移量最大。碳排放的產生源于產業繫統的能源消費,產業群的碳關聯實際上反映瞭能源需求在產業中的分佈和轉移。因此.要科學閤理地規劃能源消費併加大清潔能源的研髮和使用。以便有效地降低產業繫統的碳排放。
본문이중국산업부문위연구대상.침대2007년중국투입산출표화능원소비량수거,운용가설추취법계산11개산업군적총탄관련、전향탄관련화후향탄관련,병장탄관련구분위내부효응、혼합효응、정후향효응화정전향효응,진일보분해료각산업군재정후향공급화정전향수구중흡수혹전이적탄배방.연구발현련초화공금속산품제조업시탄관련최위돌출적부문.전력연기급수적생산공응업적탄전이량최대。탄배방적산생원우산업계통적능원소비,산업군적탄관련실제상반영료능원수구재산업중적분포화전이。인차.요과학합리지규화능원소비병가대청길능원적연발화사용。이편유효지강저산업계통적탄배방。
Taking the Chinese industrial sectors as the study object, and applying the input-output table of 2007 and energy consumption data, this paper studies the linkage of carbon emissions in industrial sectors by using hypothetical extraction method. The total linkage effect, forward linkage effect and backward linkage effect of 11 industry groups are calculated, and then the total linkage effect is divided into the internal effect, mixed effect, net backward effect and net forward effect respectively. Based on this, the absorption/transfer of carbon emissions in net backward supply and net forward requirement is analyzed. This analysis shows that the coking coal, chemical, and metal manufacture groups are the most remarkable sectors in carbon linkage, and the electricity, gas and water production/supply groups transfer the most amounts of carbon emissions. The carbon emissions originate from the energy consumption of industry systems, and the carbon linkage actually reflects the distribution and transfer of energy demand in the industry. Therefore, in order to effectively reduce the carbon emissions, it is essential to plan energy consumption in a scientific and rational way, and to increase the research, development and application of clean energy.