CAJ | 학술논문

评估新农保与家庭代际支持的互动关系是衡量新农保政策绩效的关键问题之一。本文利用2008年与2011年“中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查”数据，通过固定效应面板模型以及PSMDD等方法控制住老人参保行为的内生性和样本选择偏误，研究发现，新农保在增进农村老人福利水平的同时，对于家庭代际经济支持有着显著的“挤出效应”，老人领取的养老金在均值基础上每增加1元时，其子女提供的代际支持将减少0．808元；与未参保老人相比，2011年参保老人所获得的子女代际支持金额相对减少了587．1元／年，占同期领取养老金收益的62．4％。由此可见新农保的主要受益人是老人的子女，主要政策绩效是减轻了子女的养老负担。
평고신농보여가정대제지지적호동관계시형량신농보정책적효적관건문제지일。본문이용2008년여2011년“중국노년건강영향인소근종조사”수거，통과고정효응면판모형이급PSMDD등방법공제주노인삼보행위적내생성화양본선택편오，연구발현，신농보재증진농촌노인복이수평적동시，대우가정대제경제지지유착현저적“제출효응”，노인령취적양로금재균치기출상매증가1원시，기자녀제공적대제지지장감소0．808원；여미삼보노인상비，2011년삼보노인소획득적자녀대제지지금액상대감소료587．1원／년，점동기령취양로금수익적62．4％。유차가견신농보적주요수익인시노인적자녀，주요정책적효시감경료자녀적양로부담。
One of the key questions in evaluation of the performance of the New Rural Society Endowment Insurance Program （NSEI） in China is that how the intergenerational transfers among families will change along with the NSEI reform. Based on Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey （CLHLS） and econometric methods of IV, FE, and PSMDD, the results show that NSEI has significant replacement, or ＂crowding out＂, effects on intergenerational transfers among Chinese families in rural areas. A dollar of pension is associated with a reduction of 80. 8 cents of intergenerational transfers from adult children. The elders who attended NSEI received 587. 1 RMB, on average, less transfers from adult children in 2011 compared with those who did not attend NSEI, which amounts to 62.4 percent of public pensions by NES1 at the same period. Thus, we argue that adult children benefit more from NSEI compared with their old-age parents. The major outcome of NSEI is the alleviation of aged-supporting burden on adult children, rather than the increase of benefit level of elderly.