CAJ | 학술논문

在我国利率市场化进程不断加快的背景下，如何建立与利率市场定价机制相适应的货币政策调控机制，成为一个十分现实而又紧迫的研究课题。均衡利率作为实现潜在产出和稳定通胀时的实际利率，是中央银行进行利率调控的一个重要基准。本文在分析我国“利率双轨制”的基础上，构建一个包括家庭、企业、银行和中央银行的四部门DSGE模型，对我国1998年2季度至2012年3季度的均衡利率进行估算，在此基础上，深入分析均衡利率走势与我国宏观经济波动、货币政策运用等之间的内在联系。研究发现：我国的均衡利率变动领先于经济增速、CPI等宏观经济变量，是揭示宏观经济运行的周期性位置、研究和制定货币政策的重要参考。
재아국리솔시장화진정불단가쾌적배경하，여하건립여리솔시장정개궤제상괄응적화폐정책조공궤제，성위일개십분현실이우긴박적연구과제。균형리솔작위실현잠재산출화은정통창시적실제리솔，시중앙은행진행리솔조공적일개중요기준。본문재분석아국“리솔쌍궤제”적기출상，구건일개포괄가정、기업、은행화중앙은행적사부문DSGE모형，대아국1998년2계도지2012년3계도적균형리솔진행고산，재차기출상，심입분석균형리솔주세여아국굉관경제파동、화폐정책운용등지간적내재련계。연구발현：아국적균형리솔변동령선우경제증속、CPI등굉관경제변량，시게시굉관경제운행적주기성위치、연구화제정화폐정책적중요삼고。
The accelerating speed of interest rate liberalization in China has imposed an extremely important research topic： how to establish an effective monetary control mechanism that adjusts well to the pricing mechanism of the interest market. Equilibrium interest rate, defined as the interest rate at which the production gap is zero and the inflation is stable, is generally considered to be an important benchmark used by the central bank when making indirect interest control. In this paper, we studied the ＂Dual-track interest rates＂ system of China, and constructed a four-branch DSGE model to estimate the equilibrium interest rate of China. Then, we studied the inherent mechanism between the equilibrium interest rate fluctuation and the other elements, such as the macroeconomic situation, and the monetary policy implementation. The result shows that the equilibrium interest rate is a leading indicator to the macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth and CPI, and an important benchmark for the monetary policy making.