CAJ | 학술논문

本文基于中国31个省份28个行业的劳动生产率与出口数据，测度1993-2011年期间各省份出口商品技术复杂度．通过引入邻区相对复杂度概念．利用核密度与马尔可夫链方法．分析中国各省份技术复杂度分布变动特征与影响因素．探讨各省份出口商品技术复杂度分布演进规律与最终的稳态分布。结果表明：中国各省份技术复杂度变化遵循着先向邻区收敛，再逐步向整体水平提升的路径演进．但各省份技术复杂度分布演进呈现出明显的阶段特征与区域差异。从长期看。各省份技术复杂度的演进路径相对平缓．后发地区出现跨越性发展的概率较低，总体演化趋势是两极弱化．中间强化。通过合理布局国家级新区，做强经济圈内增长极；加强区域规划中区域协调职能，将区域合作效果引入省份发展绩效考核体系，推动经济圈市场一体化、功能一体化，利益协同化；将相对落后省份区域发展规划上升到国家层面等方式．将有助于中国各省份技术复杂度的收敛，提升整体技术复杂度．
본문기우중국31개성빈28개행업적노동생산솔여출구수거，측도1993-2011년기간각성빈출구상품기술복잡도．통과인입린구상대복잡도개념．이용핵밀도여마이가부련방법．분석중국각성빈기술복잡도분포변동특정여영향인소．탐토각성빈출구상품기술복잡도분포연진규률여최종적은태분포。결과표명：중국각성빈기술복잡도변화준순착선향린구수렴，재축보향정체수평제승적로경연진．단각성빈기술복잡도분포연진정현출명현적계단특정여구역차이。종장기간。각성빈기술복잡도적연진로경상대평완．후발지구출현과월성발전적개솔교저，총체연화추세시량겁약화．중간강화。통과합리포국국가급신구，주강경제권내증장겁；가강구역규화중구역협조직능，장구역합작효과인입성빈발전적효고핵체계，추동경제권시장일체화、공능일체화，이익협동화；장상대락후성빈구역발전규화상승도국가층면등방식．장유조우중국각성빈기술복잡도적수렴，제승정체기술복잡도．
Based on 28 industries＇ labor productivity and export data from 31 provinces in China, this paper has measured the export technology content during the period of 1993-2011. By introducing the concept of neighborhood relative export technology content, and using kernel density estimation and Markov chain analysis methods, this paper analyzes the dynamic characteristics and influencing factors of China＇s regional export technology content, and finally explores distribution laws and the final steady-state distribution of export technology content of China＇s provincial export commodities. The results show that： firstly, the export technology content will converge to the neighborhood level, and then the overall level will improve gradually; While the provincial export technology content showed significant difference and spatial correlation. Secondly, in long term, the evolution path of provincial export technology content is relatively flat： the probability for latecomer to achieve substantive development is low, the poles are weakening and the middle is strengthening. Thus, the growth pole in economic circle will be strengthened through rational distribution of the new development areas of state-level; Besides, strengthening regional coordination functions in regional planning and introducing the effect of regional cooperation into the appraisal system of provincial development performance will help to promote market and function integration of economic circle and the coordination of benefits allocation; Lastly, enhancing backward regions＇ development plans to the national levels will contribute to convergence of provincial export technology content and the improvement of overall export technology content.