CAJ | 학술논문

计算了2001年至2010年北京市的就业弹性系数,并预测了＂十二五＂期末北京市产业结构升级增加的劳动力规模。结果显示,总就业弹性呈下降趋势,其中第一产业和第二产业释放出大量劳动力,第三产业则吸纳大量劳动人口,极大地带动了北京市人口数量的增加。与就业弹性系数不变的假设情况相比,当以发达国家就业弹性为标杆时,2015年末北京市新增就业人口将少增加100万人。在此基础上,认为北京市人口调控要强化政府的政策导向作用,以产业结构升级为契机,通过优化产业发展布局带动人口结构优化。
계산료2001년지2010년북경시적취업탄성계수,병예측료＂십이오＂기말북경시산업결구승급증가적노동력규모。결과현시,총취업탄성정하강추세,기중제일산업화제이산업석방출대량노동력,제삼산업칙흡납대량노동인구,겁대지대동료북경시인구수량적증가。여취업탄성계수불변적가설정황상비,당이발체국가취업탄성위표간시,2015년말북경시신증취업인구장소증가100만인。재차기출상,인위북경시인구조공요강화정부적정책도향작용,이산업결구승급위계궤,통과우화산업발전포국대동인구결구우화。
Using the related data from 2001 to 2010,this essay calculates the employment elasticity coefficient and predicts the newly increased labor population with upgrading of the industrial structure at the end of the twelfth five-year in Beijing.The results show that the total employment elasticity coefficient is a descending trend.The primary industry and second industry has released a large number of labors,and the tertiary industry has absorbed a lot of labor force which have greatly increased the population in Beijing.Compared with the assumption of the constant employment elasticity coefficient,the newly increased labor population would less increase of 1 million at the end of 2015 with the benchmarking of the employment elasticity coefficient in developed countries.Implications are discussed in the end.The policy guidance should be strengthened,and the development growth through upgrading the industrial structure and optimizing the industrial layout should be realized.