CAJ | 학술논문

碳排放强度的降低有两个途径：技术进步和结构变动。本文从碳排放强度的视角，运用因素分解法，将碳排放强度分解为产业结构变动和技术进步，测算了1996～2011年产业结构变动和技术进步对碳排放的影响。研究结果表明：1996年以来，技术进步是推动中国碳排放强度下降的主要因素，产业结构变动对碳排放强度变化的影响作用较小；在各个产业部门中，对整个国民经济碳排放强度降低贡献最大的部门是工业，其次是交通运输业。因此，将来优化产业结构降低碳排放强度还有很大的空间，通过技术进步降低碳排放强度是有效的途径。
탄배방강도적강저유량개도경：기술진보화결구변동。본문종탄배방강도적시각，운용인소분해법，장탄배방강도분해위산업결구변동화기술진보，측산료1996～2011년산업결구변동화기술진보대탄배방적영향。연구결과표명：1996년이래，기술진보시추동중국탄배방강도하강적주요인소，산업결구변동대탄배방강도변화적영향작용교소；재각개산업부문중，대정개국민경제탄배방강도강저공헌최대적부문시공업，기차시교통운수업。인차，장래우화산업결구강저탄배방강도환유흔대적공간，통과기술진보강저탄배방강도시유효적도경。
There are two ways to reduce carbon strength： technological progress and structure change. From the angle of carbon strength, this paper uses factor decomposition method to decompose industrial structure and technological progress from carbon emission strength, measuring the impact of industrial structure and technological pro- gress on carbon emissions from 1996 to 2011 Results show： technological progress is the main factor reducing China＇ s carbon emissions strength, while structure changes effect is small; industrial sector contributes more to the carbon strength of the entire national economy, followed by transportation, comparing with others industries. So optimizing the industrial structure has lots of space and technological progress is an effective way to reduce carbon strength in future.