CAJ | 학술논문

经济的发展促进了全球贸易的活跃度,经济活动和贸易活动的顺利开展离不开库存缓存作用的发挥,而库存的存在是以产品的生产和交易为基础的。本研究利用24个主要OECD国家近30年的数据,采用随机效应的面板数据分析模型,研究了经济发展对库存投资的影响,以及贸易平衡的中介效应。结果发现经济发展以及贸易平衡都对库存投资有显著的影响,其中经济发展正向促进了库存投资,而贸易平衡则对库存投资有反向的作用。同时,经济发展对库存的影响,部分地通过影响贸易平衡来实现,进一步分析发现在这个部分中介效应中起主要作用的是纯产品的贸易平衡,而不是服务贸易。
경제적발전촉진료전구무역적활약도,경제활동화무역활동적순리개전리불개고존완존작용적발휘,이고존적존재시이산품적생산화교역위기출적。본연구이용24개주요OECD국가근30년적수거,채용수궤효응적면판수거분석모형,연구료경제발전대고존투자적영향,이급무역평형적중개효응。결과발현경제발전이급무역평형도대고존투자유현저적영향,기중경제발전정향촉진료고존투자,이무역평형칙대고존투자유반향적작용。동시,경제발전대고존적영향,부분지통과영향무역평형래실현,진일보분석발현재저개부분중개효응중기주요작용적시순산품적무역평형,이불시복무무역。
Major OECD （Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development） countries in the world are achieving rapid economic growth, and foreign trade activities among those countries are increasingly frequent. Economic development results in vigorousglobal trade. However, inventory＇s buffer memory effect is needed to ensure the smooth development of econoniic and trade activities. In addition, inventory is stored based on the production and transaction of goods. Inventory exists not only in individual firm, s but also in the cooperative supply chain, all industry sectors and countries. Inventory is an indispensable part of operation even though it occupies a huge amount of funding and resources. The national inventory investment is fluctuant and greatly depends on the change of economic growth rate and the deepening of foreign trade. Studying the relationship among economic growth, trade balance and the behavior of national inventory is beneficial for making macro-economic policy. By using data from 24 OECD countries during 1979 and 2008 and applying the panel data model with random effect, this study examines the impact of economic development on inventory investment and the mediating role of trade balance. In addition, this paper tries to explore which part of trade （ goods trade, service trade or both of them） has the mediating effect, and broadens relative empirical research achievement about national inventory. After reviewing relatively empirical literature on inventory, we find that most of foreign researches about inventory mainly focus on three levels-national level, industrial level and company level-about influencing factors of inventory. However, these studies primarily study appearance impression, and do not consider the influence mechanism of factor and internal relations among factors. In view of these shortages presented, this paper proposes a conceptual model in which trade moderates the relationship between economic growth and inventory investment, and further divides trade into goods trade and service trade in order to separately discuss the effect of these two types of trade. In the analysis process we apply unit root tests, Hausman tests, panel data regression test to verify hypothesis. Finally, we use Granger causality tests to confirm cause and effect between economic growth and inventory investment. The results from panel data analytical model with random effect show that economic growth has positive and significant impact on inventory investment, and trade balance has negative and significant impact on inventory investment. In addition, economic growth has the negative effect on trade balance. Furthermore, trade balance partially mediates the relationship between economic development and inventory investment. The direct effect is stronger than the indirect effect that economic growth influences inventory investment through trade balance. Further analysis finds that the main function of the mediating effect is not the service trade, but goods trade.