CAJ | 학술논문

由于消费决策过程的复杂性和随机性，消费者对品牌危机事件的反应会随时间而产生更加复杂的变化。本文运用系统动力学的方法，构建了基于消费群体随机性反应的品牌危机动态扩散预测模型。模型考虑了消费群体的差异性和消费行为的随机性，并针对不同消费群体的特点，运用Vensim．PLE软件对模型进行仿真预测，分析了危机事件中沟通的时效性、消费者忠诚度系数、消费群体离散程度等影响因子，随时间变动对消费者购买行为的影响。
유우소비결책과정적복잡성화수궤성，소비자대품패위궤사건적반응회수시간이산생경가복잡적변화。본문운용계통동역학적방법，구건료기우소비군체수궤성반응적품패위궤동태확산예측모형。모형고필료소비군체적차이성화소비행위적수궤성，병침대불동소비군체적특점，운용Vensim．PLE연건대모형진행방진예측，분석료위궤사건중구통적시효성、소비자충성도계수、소비군체리산정도등영향인자，수시간변동대소비자구매행위적영향。
Consumer reaction to brand crisis will be different with time going because of the complexity and randomness of the decision - making process. This paper established a brand crisis spread prediction model based on consumer reac- tion at random by using system dynamics. The model considered the random consumer behavior and the differentiation of consumers. And then it studied variables＇ effect such as timeliness of company efforts, consumer＇s loyalty index, disper- sion degree of consumers, etc on consumer purchasing - behavior in the course of time by using the software of VENSIM.