CAJ | 학술논문

对自然灾害等突发性危机事件进行准确及时的损失评估，是制定科学的危机预防与危机应对政策的主要依据。本文根据危机发生后经济系统各部门在不同阶段反映出来的特征，将危机对经济部门的影响划分为三个主要阶段，在对非正常程度投入产出模型（Inoperability Input—outputModel，IIM）进行扩展的基础上，构建两阶段动态IIM模型，分析危机不同阶段对经济系统的产出影响程度以及经济系统对于危机影响的敏感性程度，评估危机事件发生后对经济系统中具有关联关系的各部门的经济影响。以H市冰雪灾害为例．模拟危机对经济系统中各部门的影响周期并计算相应损失值，结果表明该模型可以更加准确地评估危机导致的经济损失。
대자연재해등돌발성위궤사건진행준학급시적손실평고，시제정과학적위궤예방여위궤응대정책적주요의거。본문근거위궤발생후경제계통각부문재불동계단반영출래적특정，장위궤대경제부문적영향화분위삼개주요계단，재대비정상정도투입산출모형（Inoperability Input—outputModel，IIM）진행확전적기출상，구건량계단동태IIM모형，분석위궤불동계단대경제계통적산출영향정도이급경제계통대우위궤영향적민감성정도，평고위궤사건발생후대경제계통중구유관련관계적각부문적경제영향。이H시빙설재해위례．모의위궤대경제계통중각부문적영향주기병계산상응손실치，결과표명해모형가이경가준학지평고위궤도치적경제손실。
Crisis loss estimation is the basis for policy-making of crisis management and crisis prevention plans. In this study, the impact of disaster events on economic sectors is divided into three phases according to the feature of the affected sectors. After extending the Inoperability Input-output Model（IIM） , the two-stage dynamic IIM model is built to estimate the impact of disaster events on economy system and the sensitivity of economy system for disturbance at all stages. This model tends to focus on assessing the ex post impact of disaster events on interconnected sectors within the economic system. It can make quantitative analysis on the degradation percentage of the system＇ s production compared to the desired level. After the empirical analysis on snow disaster of H city, the results show that the model can accu- rately assess the comprehensive pecuniary loss within the crisis context.