财经理论与实践
財經理論與實踐
재경이론여실천
The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics
2013年
5期
90~94
,共null页
产业结构 城镇化 面板分位数模型
產業結構 城鎮化 麵闆分位數模型
산업결구 성진화 면판분위수모형
Industrial structure; Urbanization; Quantile regression for panel data
基于2000-2011年我国省级面板数据,采用面板分位数计量模型考察了产业结构引致的城镇化效应。研究发现,第三产业份额的估计参数显著为正,说明产业结构优化带来的城镇化效应是存在的。同时,这种效应对于处于不同分位数上的地区有较大差异:第三产业份额适中的省(市、自治区),城镇化效应最为明显;第三产业份额相对过高或过低的省(市、自治区),产业结构优化带来的城镇化效应较弱,估计参数呈现“两头小、中间大”的结果,显著、稳健为“倒U型”结构。
基于2000-2011年我國省級麵闆數據,採用麵闆分位數計量模型攷察瞭產業結構引緻的城鎮化效應。研究髮現,第三產業份額的估計參數顯著為正,說明產業結構優化帶來的城鎮化效應是存在的。同時,這種效應對于處于不同分位數上的地區有較大差異:第三產業份額適中的省(市、自治區),城鎮化效應最為明顯;第三產業份額相對過高或過低的省(市、自治區),產業結構優化帶來的城鎮化效應較弱,估計參數呈現“兩頭小、中間大”的結果,顯著、穩健為“倒U型”結構。
기우2000-2011년아국성급면판수거,채용면판분위수계량모형고찰료산업결구인치적성진화효응。연구발현,제삼산업빈액적고계삼수현저위정,설명산업결구우화대래적성진화효응시존재적。동시,저충효응대우처우불동분위수상적지구유교대차이:제삼산업빈액괄중적성(시、자치구),성진화효응최위명현;제삼산업빈액상대과고혹과저적성(시、자치구),산업결구우화대래적성진화효응교약,고계삼수정현“량두소、중간대”적결과,현저、은건위“도U형”결구。
Based on the 2000-2011 provincial panel data of China, the urbanization effect of industrial structure optimization has been estimated in the paper. It is concluded that the esti- mated parameters of the share of the tertiary industry was significantly positive, indicating that the urbanization effect of the industrial structure existed. Meanwhile, this effect was quite differ- ent in different quantiles. For moderate share of the tertiary industry, the urbanization effect of the tertiary industry is the most obvious, while it was less for the provinces with a relative high or low share of the tertiary industry. The estimated parameters presented a significant, robust "inverted U-shaped" structure with a character of "small at both ends and big in the middle".