CAJ | 학술논문

海南省作为中国一个特殊的岛屿，其自然资源和产业结构与其他省份有所不同，因而其FDI和进出口之间的关系也应具有独特性。鉴于向量自回归VAR模型通常用于相关时间序列关系的预测和随机扰动项对变量系统的动态影响，依据1987—2011年的FDI、出口额和进口额的年度数据，运用协整检验和误差修正模型进行实证分析，结果表明：海南的出口、进口与FDI之间存在一种长期均衡关系；FDI与出口量之间存在双向因果关系；脉冲响应函数和向量误差修正模型说明FDI的流入在短期内会刺激出口，而出口的增加会对FDI产生负影响。
해남성작위중국일개특수적도서，기자연자원화산업결구여기타성빈유소불동，인이기FDI화진출구지간적관계야응구유독특성。감우향량자회귀VAR모형통상용우상관시간서렬관계적예측화수궤우동항대변량계통적동태영향，의거1987—2011년적FDI、출구액화진구액적년도수거，운용협정검험화오차수정모형진행실증분석，결과표명：해남적출구、진구여FDI지간존재일충장기균형관계；FDI여출구량지간존재쌍향인과관계；맥충향응함수화향량오차수정모형설명FDI적류입재단기내회자격출구，이출구적증가회대FDI산생부영향。
Being a special island of China, the natural resources and industrial structures of Hainan Province are different from those of the other provinces, thus the relationship between its FDI and its import and export should also be unique. Considering vector auto-regression VAR model is typically used for correlation between time series prediction and random disturbance term impacting on the dynamics of the system variables, based on the data of FDI, exports and imports between 1987 to 2011, the paper makes an empirical analysis with methods of cointegration test and error correction model. The results show that： There exists a long-run steady equilibrium relationship between Hainan＇s exports, imports and FDI; Granger test finds a two-way causal relationship between FDI and exports; Impulse response function and the vector error correction model shows FDI will stimulate exports in short- time, but increase in exports will decrease FDL