CAJ | 학술논문

通过采用统计研究和实证研究等方法，对1990--2011年间我国货币政策产出效应进行分析，结果表明：实际货币供给增长率高于货币供给合理区间，货币政策会有效推动产出，同时会牺牲物价的稳定：实际货币供给增长率低于货币供给合理区间，会导致经济增长面，临下行风险。总体研究结论是：我国货币供给的GDP产出呈现明显的持续下降趋势，表明伴随中国市场化改革进程经济货币化程度日益加深，依靠货币供给推动经济增长的空间已越来越小，中国未来经济增长不能走单纯投资驱动的老路。
통과채용통계연구화실증연구등방법，대1990--2011년간아국화폐정책산출효응진행분석，결과표명：실제화폐공급증장솔고우화폐공급합리구간，화폐정책회유효추동산출，동시회희생물개적은정：실제화폐공급증장솔저우화폐공급합리구간，회도치경제증장면，림하행풍험。총체연구결론시：아국화폐공급적GDP산출정현명현적지속하강추세，표명반수중국시장화개혁진정경제화폐화정도일익가심，의고화폐공급추동경제증장적공간이월래월소，중국미래경제증장불능주단순투자구동적로로。
By adopting statistical research and empirical research methods, this paper conducts an analysis on the output effects of Chinese monetary policy in the 22 years from 1990 to 2011. The results indicate that if real money growth is higher than a reasonable range of money supply, the monetary policy can effectively promote the output and at the expense of price stability ; if real money growth is lower than a reasonable range of money supply, the e- conomy growth will face a downside risk. The overall research results shows that GDP growth contributed by money supply presents a continuing downward trend which indicates that with the deepening economic monetization in the process of China＇s marketization, the room for money supply to boost economic growth is shrinking so in the future, China＇s economic growth should not only depend on investment driven method.