CAJ | 학술논문

与我国生育率快速下降相伴而生的是人口老龄化问题，面对日益严峻的人口老龄化，社会上产生了众多对人口政策的质疑。本文从人口数量与质量替代效应视角出发，借助理论模型讨论在具有中国特色的发展模式下（包含家庭养儿防老的保障形式和人口政策对生育率的约束），人口老龄化对经济增长的影响。研究表明：低生育率尽管会加剧人口老龄化，但会促进人均教育投资和人力资本积累，经济发展方向最终由两个作用方向相反力量的强弱对比而决定。目前我国人口政策对于经济增长仍然是有贡献的。
여아국생육솔쾌속하강상반이생적시인구노령화문제，면대일익엄준적인구노령화，사회상산생료음다대인구정책적질의。본문종인구수량여질량체대효응시각출발，차조이론모형토론재구유중국특색적발전모식하（포함가정양인방로적보장형식화인구정책대생육솔적약속），인구노령화대경제증장적영향。연구표명：저생육솔진관회가극인구노령화，단회촉진인균교육투자화인력자본적루，경제발전방향최종유량개작용방향상반역량적강약대비이결정。목전아국인구정책대우경제증장잉연시유공헌적。
Rapid decline in fertility is accompanied by population aging, which brings a lot of criticizing on population policies. Based on the theoretical model this paper analyzed the impact of population aging on economic growth in the circumstance of Chinese social development （raising children for old age and constraints of population policies on fertility ） from the view point of substitution effect of quantity and quality. The result shows the aging of population is exacerbated by low fertility, but the investment in education per capita and human capital is promoted. These two opposite driving effect determine how the economic develops. Population policy is still effective for economic growth in China so far.