CAJ | 학술논문

本文引入大、小企业假定，以及符合我国多晶硅产业特点的创新方式和大企业的兼并活动构建“History-friendly”模拟模型，模拟2006--2015年进入规制政策和产业横向整合对市场集中度、平均价格加成和企业倒闭率的影响。结果显示，在未来需求增长的环境下，进入规制政策降低了多晶硅产业市场集中度和平均价格加成；而产业横向整合提高了多晶硅市场集中度，在需求增长率低于一定限度时，明显降低了平均价格加成和企业倒闭率。
본문인입대、소기업가정，이급부합아국다정규산업특점적창신방식화대기업적겸병활동구건“History-friendly”모의모형，모의2006--2015년진입규제정책화산업횡향정합대시장집중도、평균개격가성화기업도폐솔적영향。결과현시，재미래수구증장적배경하，진입규제정책강저료다정규산업시장집중도화평균개격가성；이산업횡향정합제고료다정규시장집중도，재수구증장솔저우일정한도시，명현강저료평균개격가성화기업도폐솔。
The paper explores the effect of entry regulation and horizontal integration on the ratio of market concentration, price make- up and collapse rate of Chinese PV polycrystalline silicon industry. For this purpose, this paper develops a ＇ history friendly model＇ for PV polycrystalline silicon industry that replicates the history of the industry by simulation. The simulation analysis found the entry regula- tion has a long-term effect and the horizontal integration would reduce collapse rate and maintain industry security.