CAJ | 학술논문

针对物价运行环境的悄然变化，本文以货币数量论和结构性通胀理论为基础，使用1978—2011年的数据对工业化、城市化进程中粮食价格波动对我国CPI的影响进行了实证研究。研究结果表明：我国CPI上涨的货币现象显著，人均产出水平与货币供给水平提高的综合作用抑制了CPI的较快上涨；与加快的工业化进程驱动对CPI上涨不同，城市化水平的提高却对降低CPI有着积极意义；粮食价格水平的提高进一步助推了CPI爬升。为此，应将新型工业化、新型城镇化与农业现代化协调推进，保障农业生产，维持农产品价格稳定；与此同时，应不断提升货币流通速度，降低CPI上涨的货币压力。并及时调整CPI权重，提升CPI指数的质量。
침대물개운행배경적초연변화，본문이화폐수량론화결구성통창이론위기출，사용1978—2011년적수거대공업화、성시화진정중양식개격파동대아국CPI적영향진행료실증연구。연구결과표명：아국CPI상창적화폐현상현저，인균산출수평여화폐공급수평제고적종합작용억제료CPI적교쾌상창；여가쾌적공업화진정구동대CPI상창불동，성시화수평적제고각대강저CPI유착적겁의의；양식개격수평적제고진일보조추료CPI파승。위차，응장신형공업화、신형성진화여농업현대화협조추진，보장농업생산，유지농산품개격은정；여차동시，응불단제승화폐류통속도，강저CPI상창적화폐압력。병급시조정CPI권중，제승CPI지수적질량。
How the grain price affect on the CPI in the process of industrialization and urbanization, which is a central issue of the paper because of the changing on the price environment. The results of the empirical study, based on the quantity theory of money and the structural inflation theory, using 1978 - 2011 data of China, show that the increase of money supply significantly pushes up the CPI, but the effect of per GDP is opposite; AS like money and per GDP, industrialization has a significant positive effect on the CPI, urban- ization has significant negative effect. Therefore, we should coordinately promote industrialization, urbaniza- tion and agricultural to maintain the stable of agricultural production and the grain price; at the same time, we should increase money velocity in order to reduce the rising pressure of CPI from the money supply, and timely adjustment the weights of CPI to enhance the quality of CPI.