CAJ | 학술논문

文章根据卫生部监测点数据及世界其他国家有关数据对我国第六次入口普查公布的婴儿死亡率及5岁以下儿童死亡概率提出质疑，认为普查数据所显示的我国婴儿死亡率和5岁以下儿童死亡概率水平偏低且下降速度过快。在此基础上，文章进一步结合多国数据，分别考察经济发展水平、文化教育水平与婴儿死亡率及5岁以下儿童死亡概率之间的关系，发现我国的状况在很大程度上不符合国际经验。为给出相对准确的婴儿死亡率及5岁以下儿童死亡概率估计值，研究中利用寇尔德曼模型生命表及布拉斯罗吉特转换对我国实际的婴儿死亡率及5岁以下儿童死亡概率进行了估计。研究结果显示，我国婴儿死亡率和5岁以下儿童死亡概率分别在18‰～19‰和22‰-23‰的范围内。
문장근거위생부감측점수거급세계기타국가유관수거대아국제륙차입구보사공포적영인사망솔급5세이하인동사망개솔제출질의，인위보사수거소현시적아국영인사망솔화5세이하인동사망개솔수평편저차하강속도과쾌。재차기출상，문장진일보결합다국수거，분별고찰경제발전수평、문화교육수평여영인사망솔급5세이하인동사망개솔지간적관계，발현아국적상황재흔대정도상불부합국제경험。위급출상대준학적영인사망솔급5세이하인동사망개솔고계치，연구중이용구이덕만모형생명표급포랍사라길특전환대아국실제적영인사망솔급5세이하인동사망개솔진행료고계。연구결과현시，아국영인사망솔화5세이하인동사망개솔분별재18‰～19‰화22‰-23‰적범위내。
China＇ s 2010 census reported extremely low infant mortality and under - five mortality rates. This paper examines quality of data of the infant mortality and under -five mortality rates ob- tained from the 2010 census by comparing between various data sources. The paper reviews interna- tional experiences in changing infant mortality and under -five mortality rates and their relations with social and economic development, demonstrating that the infant mortality and under - five mortality rates obtained from China＇ s 2010 census are well beyond the general patterns obsevred in other coun- tries. Applying Coale- Demeny model life tables and Brass Iogit models, this paper provides an esti- mate of China＇ s 2010 infant mortality and under - five mortality rates, with the infant mortality rate be- ing 18 - 19 per 1000 and under -five mortality rate 22 -23 per 1000, contrasting to 3.8 per 1000 and 6 per 1000 directly derived from the 2010 census.