CAJ | 학술논문

宏观经济总量平稳性特征或者是否具有单位根，对研究变量的长期趋势以及变量间因果关系具有重要意义。本文采用Enders和Lee（2012）提出的傅里叶序列逼近单位根检验研究了中国宏观经济1952～2011年间的实际产出、实际人均产出、实际消费、实际工资和实际进出口5个指标的动态特征。实证结果表明，所有指标为包含结构变化的非线性平稳序列，这对于研究宏观经济变量的长期趋势以及分析变量间的关系具有重要启示，也表明以往建立在单位根结果基础上的协整分析及格兰杰因果分析值得商榷。
굉관경제총량평은성특정혹자시부구유단위근，대연구변량적장기추세이급변량간인과관계구유중요의의。본문채용Enders화Lee（2012）제출적부리협서렬핍근단위근검험연구료중국굉관경제1952～2011년간적실제산출、실제인균산출、실제소비、실제공자화실제진출구5개지표적동태특정。실증결과표명，소유지표위포함결구변화적비선성평은서렬，저대우연구굉관경제변량적장기추세이급분석변량간적관계구유중요계시，야표명이왕건립재단위근결과기출상적협정분석급격란걸인과분석치득상각。
Whether a series can be characterized by a unit process or not is important for studying its long-run growth trend,as well as its relationship with other macro-economic series. By employing a new unit root testing approach proposed by Enders ~ Lee（2012） using a Fourier series to approximate smooth breaks, this paper studies the dynamic characterization of 5 main macro-economics in China during 1952 2011, namely Real GDP, Real GDP per cap, Real Consumption,Real Trade and Real Wages. It is important to note that,empirically result reveals that all the series are stationary with smooth breaks,an implication of the findings is that previous studies derived by co-integration or Granger Causality should be treated seriously.