财经研究
財經研究
재경연구
The Study of Finance and Economics
2013年
10期
60~75
,共null页
最终需求 产业结构演进 可比价非竞争型投入产出表
最終需求 產業結構縯進 可比價非競爭型投入產齣錶
최종수구 산업결구연진 가비개비경쟁형투입산출표
final demand; evolution of industrial structure; non-competitive input：output table with comparable prices
理解现阶段我国产业结构演进的机理和变换的动因对于加快转变经济发展方式、顺利实现产业升级具有极其重要的意义。文章利用非竞争投入产出模型，重点从最终需求视角深入分析了开放经济条件下1992—2010年中国产业结构演进的趋势及其背后动因。研究发现，逐步扩大城镇、农村居民消费对工业结构的改善发挥着重要作用，有利于调节重工业与轻工业的比例。文章根据部门的主要需求成因把产业分成“居民消费驱动型”、“资本驱动型”、“出口驱动型”以及“政府支出驱动型”四类，并发现“居民消费驱动型”和“出口驱动型”产业发展有利于结构升级。1992—2007年，需求结构与产出结构偏离度呈现增加势头，而到2010年形势好转，第三产业占比增加，偏离度开始缩小，这与居民消费在一定程度上提振有关。发挥消费需求的产业升级导向作用，应当成为未来政策的重点。
理解現階段我國產業結構縯進的機理和變換的動因對于加快轉變經濟髮展方式、順利實現產業升級具有極其重要的意義。文章利用非競爭投入產齣模型，重點從最終需求視角深入分析瞭開放經濟條件下1992—2010年中國產業結構縯進的趨勢及其揹後動因。研究髮現，逐步擴大城鎮、農村居民消費對工業結構的改善髮揮著重要作用，有利于調節重工業與輕工業的比例。文章根據部門的主要需求成因把產業分成“居民消費驅動型”、“資本驅動型”、“齣口驅動型”以及“政府支齣驅動型”四類，併髮現“居民消費驅動型”和“齣口驅動型”產業髮展有利于結構升級。1992—2007年，需求結構與產齣結構偏離度呈現增加勢頭，而到2010年形勢好轉，第三產業佔比增加，偏離度開始縮小，這與居民消費在一定程度上提振有關。髮揮消費需求的產業升級導嚮作用，應噹成為未來政策的重點。
리해현계단아국산업결구연진적궤리화변환적동인대우가쾌전변경제발전방식、순리실현산업승급구유겁기중요적의의。문장이용비경쟁투입산출모형，중점종최종수구시각심입분석료개방경제조건하1992—2010년중국산업결구연진적추세급기배후동인。연구발현，축보확대성진、농촌거민소비대공업결구적개선발휘착중요작용，유리우조절중공업여경공업적비례。문장근거부문적주요수구성인파산업분성“거민소비구동형”、“자본구동형”、“출구구동형”이급“정부지출구동형”사류，병발현“거민소비구동형”화“출구구동형”산업발전유리우결구승급。1992—2007년，수구결구여산출결구편리도정현증가세두，이도2010년형세호전，제삼산업점비증가，편리도개시축소，저여거민소비재일정정도상제진유관。발휘소비수구적산업승급도향작용，응당성위미래정책적중점。
The understanding of the mechanism of the evolution of in- dustrial structure and the motive for the changes at the present stage is of great significance to the acceleration of the transformation of economic de- velopment patterns and the smooth realization of industrial up-grading in China.This paper employs a non-competitive input-output model to deep an- alyze the trend for the evolution of industrial structure in China and behind motive from 1992 to 2010 under the condition of opening up the economy from a final demand perspective. The results show that the gradual expan- sion of urban and rural consumption has played an important role in the im- provement of industrial structure and is beneficial to the adjustment to the ratio of heavy industry to light industry. According to the main demand in- duced factors of sectors,industries have been divided into consumer-driven, capital-driven, export-driven and govement-spending-driven ones, and con- sumer-driven and export-driven industries are found to be conducive to structure upgrading. From 1992 to 2007 the deviation from demand structure to output structure gradually expanded~ after 2010 the situation improves, and the percentage of the tertiary industry increases and the deviation from demand structure to output structure begins to shrink, which is related to residential consumption boom to a certain extent. The guide role of consumption demand in industrial up-grading should be the focus of future policy.
