青岛科技大学学报：社会科学版
青島科技大學學報：社會科學版
청도과기대학학보：사회과학판
Journal of Qingdao University of Science and Technology
2013年
3期
84~87
,共null页
KAYA模型 碳排放 驱动因素 青岛市
KAYA模型 碳排放 驅動因素 青島市
KAYA모형 탄배방 구동인소 청도시
KAYA model; carbon emissions; driving factors; Qingdao city
本文运用KAYA模型,对青岛市碳排放及其驱动因素进行了实证研究。研究发现,2001-2010年青岛市碳排放总量持续增加,碳生产力不断提高,以煤炭、石油为主的高碳经济发展模式仍然没有根本改观。青岛市人口数量、经济发展、单位能耗碳排放的增长导致碳排放量的增加,单位GDP能源强度的提高在一定程度上降低了碳排放量。四个影响因素中,经济发展和单位GDP能源强度是影响青岛市碳排放的主要因素。根据实证结果,青岛市应以调整经济结构和能源利用结构为重点,通过低碳技术创新和机制创新,实现低碳经济的发展目标。
本文運用KAYA模型,對青島市碳排放及其驅動因素進行瞭實證研究。研究髮現,2001-2010年青島市碳排放總量持續增加,碳生產力不斷提高,以煤炭、石油為主的高碳經濟髮展模式仍然沒有根本改觀。青島市人口數量、經濟髮展、單位能耗碳排放的增長導緻碳排放量的增加,單位GDP能源彊度的提高在一定程度上降低瞭碳排放量。四箇影響因素中,經濟髮展和單位GDP能源彊度是影響青島市碳排放的主要因素。根據實證結果,青島市應以調整經濟結構和能源利用結構為重點,通過低碳技術創新和機製創新,實現低碳經濟的髮展目標。
본문운용KAYA모형,대청도시탄배방급기구동인소진행료실증연구。연구발현,2001-2010년청도시탄배방총량지속증가,탄생산력불단제고,이매탄、석유위주적고탄경제발전모식잉연몰유근본개관。청도시인구수량、경제발전、단위능모탄배방적증장도치탄배방량적증가,단위GDP능원강도적제고재일정정도상강저료탄배방량。사개영향인소중,경제발전화단위GDP능원강도시영향청도시탄배방적주요인소。근거실증결과,청도시응이조정경제결구화능원이용결구위중점,통과저탄기술창신화궤제창신,실현저탄경제적발전목표。
This paper analyzes the carbon emissions and driving factors of Qingdao city based on KAYA model. The empirical results indicate that total carbon emissions and carbon productivity continue to increase, and there is no fundamental difference in the mode of high carbon economy dominated by coal and oil during 2001-2010. The growth of population, economic development, and energy consumption per unit of carbon emissions lead to the increase of carbon emissions, but the boost of per unit GDP energy intensity reduces the carbon emission to a certain extent. The economic development and the unit GDP energy intensity are the main influencing factors in the four influencing factors. According to the empirical results, Qingdao city should focus on the adjustment of economic structure and energy structure to realize the goal of development of low carbon by the innovation of low carbon technology and mechanism economy.
