CAJ | 학술논문

为解决电网规划决策中不确定性及模糊性问题,将情景分析法与区间隶属度相结合,提出一种新的输电网规划决策方法.根据电网规划特点,选取影响规划场景发生的5个关键事件,依次求取其初始概率、模拟概率,并由此推算出情景概率.针对情景分析法在应用中难以准确量化及场景过多问题,定义综合考虑情景概率及影响程度的评价因子指标实现对典型场景的筛选.决策过程中,采用基于梯形隶属函数的区间数模糊决策方法求取方案隶属度,克服了规划指标难以精确计算问题.并根据最大隶属度进行方案排序,最终求得各方案优劣比较结果.最后通过算例验证了该方法的有效性.
위해결전망규화결책중불학정성급모호성문제,장정경분석법여구간대속도상결합,제출일충신적수전망규화결책방법.근거전망규화특점,선취영향규화장경발생적5개관건사건,의차구취기초시개솔、모의개솔,병유차추산출정경개솔.침대정경분석법재응용중난이준학양화급장경과다문제,정의종합고필정경개솔급영향정도적평개인자지표실현대전형장경적사선.결책과정중,채용기우제형대속함수적구간수모호결책방법구취방안대속도,극복료규화지표난이정학계산문제.병근거최대대속도진행방안배서,최종구득각방안우렬비교결과.최후통과산례험증료해방법적유효성.
In order to solve the problem of uncertainty and fuzzy in power system planning, a new method combining scenario analysis and interval subordinate for transmission network planning is proposed. Five key events are selected according to the characteristic of power system planning, and then we get the initial probability, simulated probability, and calculate the probability of scenarios. Evaluation factors is defined which care about scenario probability and its impact to select scenario. It overcomes the problem that the scenario is too difficult to accurately quantify and too many in the scenario analysis. Trapezium subordinate function of interval number fuzzy evaluation method is used to find the membership of plan in the decision process. The maximum degree of subordinate is used to sort the results. Finally, the practical example is uiven to show the availability of the method.