CAJ | 학술논문

笔者利用1982-2010年的年度数据，分析了我国的FDI、服务业比较优势和服务贸易竞争力之间的短期和长期Granger因果关系。研究表明：虽然在短期内FDI促进了服务业比较优势的提升，然而从长期看其对服务业比较优势具有负效应；而我国服务贸易出口促进政策虽然在短期内有一定效果，但未能为服务业比较优势提升带来长久动力，因此，通过吸引外资和促进服务贸易出口来提升我国服务业比较优势的发展思路从长远看并不可行。
필자이용1982-2010년적년도수거，분석료아국적FDI、복무업비교우세화복무무역경쟁력지간적단기화장기Granger인과관계。연구표명：수연재단기내FDI촉진료복무업비교우세적제승，연이종장기간기대복무업비교우세구유부효응；이아국복무무역출구촉진정책수연재단기내유일정효과，단미능위복무업비교우세제승대래장구동력，인차，통과흡인외자화촉진복무무역출구래제승아국복무업비교우세적발전사로종장원간병불가행。
This study is to evaluate the effect of foreign capital to promote the international competitiveness of service trade. Basing on 1982- 2010 annual data, this paper conducts short- term and long- term Granger causality tests on FDI, the comparative advantage of service industry, and the competitiveness of service trade. The research indicates that although FDI promotes the comparative advantages of service in- dustry in the short term, in the long run it has a negative effect. Moreover, the egicieney of export promotion policy is low, not only unable to advance the comparative advantages of service industry, but damage it. Therefore, it is not feasible to improve the comparative advantages of service industry by attracting FDI or by export promotion policy; the traditional export- oriented growth mode is not suitable for service industry.