CAJ | 학술논문

文章利用中国省际面板数据模型，对中国外贸余额的决定因素进行了实证分析。在此过程中，采用了模型选择技术。在列出9个可能的解释变量之后，用它们的所有组合对外贸余额进行了回归。然后再根据统计的和经济的准则进行筛选，得到最终模型，从中可以确认外贸余额真正的决定因素。根据最终模型，可以计算得到各省外贸余额的自然值，将其与实际值对比便得到政策值。研究发现中国外贸政策在东部地区的作用效果明显强于中西部地区。
문장이용중국성제면판수거모형，대중국외무여액적결정인소진행료실증분석。재차과정중，채용료모형선택기술。재렬출9개가능적해석변량지후，용타문적소유조합대외무여액진행료회귀。연후재근거통계적화경제적준칙진행사선，득도최종모형，종중가이학인외무여액진정적결정인소。근거최종모형，가이계산득도각성외무여액적자연치，장기여실제치대비편득도정책치。연구발현중국외무정책재동부지구적작용효과명현강우중서부지구。
Based on China＇s provincial panel data, this paper empirically analyzes the determinants of foreign trade balance. Model selection technique is applied in the analytical process; 9 potential regressors are listed and regression analyses are conducted exhausting all possible combinations with them. By processing the combinations with economic and statistical criteria, we come up with the final model that can determine the influential factors of foreign trade balance. The model is successfully applied to calculate the natural value and policy value of foreign trade balance. The study finds that China＇s foreign trade policies have a stronger effect on its eastern provinces.