CAJ | 학술논문

文章基于非线性平滑转换面板数据模型，分析我国城市居民和农村居民消费的影响因素以及变化趋势，实证结果如下：我国城市居民和农村民居均具有稳定的消费习惯，且稳定性随着收入水平递增；人均收入与居民消费率负相关：财政支出对居民消费率的挤入效应随着收入水平增加逐渐变小；城市老年抚养比和少年抚养比与居民消费率均为正相关。农村少年抚养比与居民消费率负相关；利率对居民消费率的影响随收入水平增加呈倒U型形状的变化。
문장기우비선성평활전환면판수거모형，분석아국성시거민화농촌거민소비적영향인소이급변화추세，실증결과여하：아국성시거민화농촌민거균구유은정적소비습관，차은정성수착수입수평체증；인균수입여거민소비솔부상관：재정지출대거민소비솔적제입효응수착수입수평증가축점변소；성시노년무양비화소년무양비여거민소비솔균위정상관。농촌소년무양비여거민소비솔부상관；리솔대거민소비솔적영향수수입수평증가정도U형형상적변화。
The paper analyzes the factors and trend which affect Chinese urban and rural residents＇ consumption based on the nonlinear smooth transition panel data model. The empirical results show that： both urban and rural residents have stable consumption habit which is gradually strengthened with the increase of income. Per capita income is negative correlation with household consumption ratio. The ＇erowding-in effect＇ of the government expenditure to residents＇ consumption ratio decreases with the increase of income level. The old-age support ratio has a positive eftect on household consumption, so does the young-age support ratio in the cities, while the young-age support ratio has a negative el＇feet in the rural areas. The effect of interest rate on househoht consumption show the inverted U shape.