地域研究与开发
地域研究與開髮
지역연구여개발
Areal Research and Development
2013年
5期
114~118
,共null页
实物期权 B—S模型 土地闲置 开发商
實物期權 B—S模型 土地閒置 開髮商
실물기권 B—S모형 토지한치 개발상
real option; Black-Sholes model; land idle; property developer
运用实物期权理论分析我国房地产开发商闲置土地行为。土地作为一种有限资源，在推动城镇化进程发展和促进经济平稳发展中有重要作用，其能否得到有效利用关系重大。因此，将房地产开发商的土地投资决策视为一种实物看涨期权，从而解释了在市场存在不确定时房地产企业闲置土地背后的动因；并通过延迟投资期权定价模型（B—S模型）分析开发商开发土地最佳时机的决定和影响因素，借此为房地产企业做投资决策和政府调控土地市场提供参考意见。
運用實物期權理論分析我國房地產開髮商閒置土地行為。土地作為一種有限資源，在推動城鎮化進程髮展和促進經濟平穩髮展中有重要作用，其能否得到有效利用關繫重大。因此，將房地產開髮商的土地投資決策視為一種實物看漲期權，從而解釋瞭在市場存在不確定時房地產企業閒置土地揹後的動因；併通過延遲投資期權定價模型（B—S模型）分析開髮商開髮土地最佳時機的決定和影響因素，藉此為房地產企業做投資決策和政府調控土地市場提供參攷意見。
운용실물기권이론분석아국방지산개발상한치토지행위。토지작위일충유한자원，재추동성진화진정발전화촉진경제평은발전중유중요작용，기능부득도유효이용관계중대。인차，장방지산개발상적토지투자결책시위일충실물간창기권，종이해석료재시장존재불학정시방지산기업한치토지배후적동인；병통과연지투자기권정개모형（B—S모형）분석개발상개발토지최가시궤적결정화영향인소，차차위방지산기업주투자결책화정부조공토지시장제공삼고의견。
This article attempts to use real options theory to analyze the phenomenon of real estate developers＇ idle land. Land, as a kind of limited resources, plays an important role in promoting the urbanization development and stable development of economy. And it＇ s important to ensure that land is utilized in an effective way. This paper views a land investment decision as a real option and explains why real estate enterprises idle land when the market is uncertain. In addition, the paper analyzes the factors affecting the best time of land development based on delayed option pricing model and provides some ideas for real estate enterprises to make investment decisions and the gov- ernment to regulate the land market.
