CAJ | 학술논문

预测信息所起的作用要远远大于历史信息，而对预测信息实行强制性披露还是自愿性披露决定着企业管理层的披露行为，从而决定了投资者所获预测信息的数量和质量，最终将影响证券市场的效率。本文在对博弈报酬进行严格论证的基础上，分别建立并求解了强制性预测信息披露制度和自愿性预测信息披露制度下的不完美信息博弈模型，计算并比较了两种信息披露制度下的弱完美贝叶斯纳什均衡所对应的社会福利值，从而找出了较为有效的信息披露制度。研究结果表明，强制性预测信息披露制度能打破由信息不对称所导致的恶性循环，并能对管理者构成有效的威慑。因此，强制性预测信息披露制度比自愿性预测信息披露制度更能增进社会福利，因而更为可取。
예측신식소기적작용요원원대우역사신식，이대예측신식실행강제성피로환시자원성피로결정착기업관리층적피로행위，종이결정료투자자소획예측신식적수량화질량，최종장영향증권시장적효솔。본문재대박혁보수진행엄격론증적기출상，분별건립병구해료강제성예측신식피로제도화자원성예측신식피로제도하적불완미신식박혁모형，계산병비교료량충신식피로제도하적약완미패협사납십균형소대응적사회복리치，종이조출료교위유효적신식피로제도。연구결과표명，강제성예측신식피로제도능타파유신식불대칭소도치적악성순배，병능대관리자구성유효적위섭。인차，강제성예측신식피로제도비자원성예측신식피로제도경능증진사회복리，인이경위가취。
The forecasting financial information indeed has more effectiveness than historical one. The types of information disclosure systems, namely mandatory or voluntary ones, significantly affect the management＇s behaviors, thus deciding the quality of the information received by investors. And finally, this would affect the efficiency of the security market. Based on the above discussion, the voluntary and mandatory information disclosure game models under impact information are set up and used to compare their weak perfect Bayesian equilibrium with the help of social welfare function. Accordingly, the results from the analyses show that mandatory information disclosure system indeed has the effect to constraint the management＇s behaviors. And it is wise to choose mandatory forecasting information disclosure system.