科技和产业
科技和產業
과기화산업
SCIENCE TECHNOLOGY AND INDUSTRIAL
2013年
10期
105~108
,共null页
牛东晓 周淑仪 钟朋园 王雅枫
牛東曉 週淑儀 鐘朋園 王雅楓
우동효 주숙의 종붕완 왕아풍
指数增长 年度用电量 指数函数法 GM(1,1)灰色模型 多元线性回归模型
指數增長 年度用電量 指數函數法 GM(1,1)灰色模型 多元線性迴歸模型
지수증장 년도용전량 지수함수법 GM(1,1)회색모형 다원선성회귀모형
exponent increase; annual electricity consumption ; exponential function ; GM (1,1) gray model; multiple linear regression model
为有效预测呈指数增长的年度用电量,本文选用了指数函数法、GM(1,1)灰色模型和多元线性回归模型来对年度用电量进行拟合外推预测。通过运用这些方法预测北京年度用电量和对预测结果进行比较分析得到,GM(1,1)灰色模型的实际预测结果往往偏大,指数函数法预测结果可能偏小,而多元线性回归模型虽然考虑了其他因素影响但在实际预测指数增长负荷时参考意义较小。N此,最终选择合适的权重加权组合以上模型得到最终预测值,预测精度较高。
為有效預測呈指數增長的年度用電量,本文選用瞭指數函數法、GM(1,1)灰色模型和多元線性迴歸模型來對年度用電量進行擬閤外推預測。通過運用這些方法預測北京年度用電量和對預測結果進行比較分析得到,GM(1,1)灰色模型的實際預測結果往往偏大,指數函數法預測結果可能偏小,而多元線性迴歸模型雖然攷慮瞭其他因素影響但在實際預測指數增長負荷時參攷意義較小。N此,最終選擇閤適的權重加權組閤以上模型得到最終預測值,預測精度較高。
위유효예측정지수증장적년도용전량,본문선용료지수함수법、GM(1,1)회색모형화다원선성회귀모형래대년도용전량진행의합외추예측。통과운용저사방법예측북경년도용전량화대예측결과진행비교분석득도,GM(1,1)회색모형적실제예측결과왕왕편대,지수함수법예측결과가능편소,이다원선성회귀모형수연고필료기타인소영향단재실제예측지수증장부하시삼고의의교소。N차,최종선택합괄적권중가권조합이상모형득도최종예측치,예측정도교고。
To forecast the annual electricity consumption of exponent increase trend, extrapolation forecasting mathematical Junctions, such as ex- ponential function, GM (1,1) gray model and multiple linear regression model, were adopted to directly fit the historical loads and forecast the fu- ture annual loads. Through using these new functions to fit the historical data of Beijing and giving a comparative analysis of the forecasting re- suits, it can be obtained that, the predicted value of GM (1,1) gray model is bigger than the actual loads, and the predicted value of exponential function is smaller than the actual loads. Considering other factors that affect the annual load, multiple linear regression model provides less refer- ence value to actual annual load forecasting of exponential growth. Ultimately, the author gives the final combination predicted results based on proper weights. The mean relative percentage error of the combination forecasting method is less than 2 ~.