CAJ | 학술논문

构建了碳排放与经济增长及其相关影响因素的阈值协整模型,利用完全修正的最小二乘法对该模型进行估计.得出如下主要结论：碳排放随着经济增长周期的发展表现出非线性变化特征;蓝色经济区的碳排放对经济增长的阈值协整效应发生在人均GDP增长率为9.54％和13.46％之处;从产业结构和能源使用效率对碳排放的阈值效应可看出蓝色经济区正在走产业升级和转型之路,因此需要注重培育高新产业发展环境.
구건료탄배방여경제증장급기상관영향인소적역치협정모형,이용완전수정적최소이승법대해모형진행고계.득출여하주요결론：탄배방수착경제증장주기적발전표현출비선성변화특정;람색경제구적탄배방대경제증장적역치협정효응발생재인균GDP증장솔위9.54％화13.46％지처;종산업결구화능원사용효솔대탄배방적역치효응가간출람색경제구정재주산업승급화전형지로,인차수요주중배육고신산업발전배경.
This paper constructs the threshold cointegration model to analyze the relationship between carbon emission and economic growth as well as its related factors,and uses the modified least square method to estimate this model.The main conclusions are as follows：with the development of economic growth cycle,carbon emission shows the characteristic of nonlinear change;the threshold cointegration effect of carbon emission on economic growth in blue economic zone appears in the points that per capita GDP growth rate is 9.54％ and 13.46％ ;according to the threshold effects of industrial structure and energy efficiency on carbon emission,it could be seen that blue economic zone is on the road of industrial upgrading and transformation.Therefore,the cultivation of development environment for high-tech industry should be paid attention to.