系统工程理论与实践
繫統工程理論與實踐
계통공정이론여실천
Systems Engineering—Theory & Practice
2013年
10期
2555~2566
,共null页
转型期 供应链产能管理 电荒 三步逐层建模法 前期流率基本入树模型
轉型期 供應鏈產能管理 電荒 三步逐層建模法 前期流率基本入樹模型
전형기 공응련산능관리 전황 삼보축층건모법 전기류솔기본입수모형
transferring period; supply chain capacity management; electrical scarcity; the three-stepstepwise modeling method; the earlier rate fundamental in-tree model
厂网分离以来，煤电价未及时联动，电力供求失衡的电荒现象多次出现，给经济发展带来极大影响．该文应用供应链产能管理理念和系统动力学方法，在原有流率基本入树模型建模成果的基础上，针对建立符合实际因果链枝的技术难点，概括提出三步建模法，通过建立流率的关联二部分图与逐层反延伸因果链图，及两图结合，建立了转型期电力供应链产能管理系统的前期流率基本入树模型，进行了前期流率基本入树模型功能研究，建立了等阶的流图模型．且基于前期流率基本入树模型进行了煤价大幅上涨而电价不及时联动形成的因果链剖析专题分析，为基于反馈环分析的转型期电荒原因剖析及其三步对策生成打下基础．
廠網分離以來，煤電價未及時聯動，電力供求失衡的電荒現象多次齣現，給經濟髮展帶來極大影響．該文應用供應鏈產能管理理唸和繫統動力學方法，在原有流率基本入樹模型建模成果的基礎上，針對建立符閤實際因果鏈枝的技術難點，概括提齣三步建模法，通過建立流率的關聯二部分圖與逐層反延伸因果鏈圖，及兩圖結閤，建立瞭轉型期電力供應鏈產能管理繫統的前期流率基本入樹模型，進行瞭前期流率基本入樹模型功能研究，建立瞭等階的流圖模型．且基于前期流率基本入樹模型進行瞭煤價大幅上漲而電價不及時聯動形成的因果鏈剖析專題分析，為基于反饋環分析的轉型期電荒原因剖析及其三步對策生成打下基礎．
엄망분리이래，매전개미급시련동，전력공구실형적전황현상다차출현，급경제발전대래겁대영향．해문응용공응련산능관리이념화계통동역학방법，재원유류솔기본입수모형건모성과적기출상，침대건립부합실제인과련지적기술난점，개괄제출삼보건모법，통과건립류솔적관련이부분도여축층반연신인과련도，급량도결합，건립료전형기전력공응련산능관리계통적전기류솔기본입수모형，진행료전기류솔기본입수모형공능연구，건립료등계적류도모형．차기우전기류솔기본입수모형진행료매개대폭상창이전개불급시련동형성적인과련부석전제분석，위기우반궤배분석적전형기전황원인부석급기삼보대책생성타하기출．
Since the plant-grid＇s separation, the on-grid prices cannot be adjusted timely with the coal price, the recurring electrical scarcity has produced huge influence on economic development. Based on the idea of supply chain capacity management and the original results about the rate fundamental in- tree modeling, the research found the three-step modeling method of earlier rate fundamental in-tree to solve the difficulty about building the cause ＆ effect chain. Focused on the rate variable, the research constructed two-part associated diagram and reverse-extend diagram to build an electrical supply chain capacity management dynamics model and an equal flowgraph model. The research studies the function of the earlier rate fundamental in-tree model, then case studies the causation chain while the coal prices have risen sharply and the on-grid prices cannot be adjusted timely. This paper has set the stage for the feedback loop analysis method to study the reason of the recurring electrical scarcity, and the three-step counterplan method to produce the tactics for lessening the danger of electrical scarcity.
