CAJ | 학술논문

随着人口增加和人们生活水平的不断提高,我国粮食消费需求将继续呈刚性增长,使得粮食品种和区域结构性矛盾加剧,而粮食产能的动态评估能够让我们加深认识我国粮食供需平衡,对制定适宜于我国经济社会发展同时保障粮食安全的粮食可持续发展战略具有重要意义.论文选取农田生产力作为我国粮食产能的指标,通过改进农业生态地带（AEZ）模型,动态嵌入不同县域水平的管理和投入水平的限制性因子,集成县级截面数据估计投入系数权重,并基于此估算了全国2000-2010年间农田生产力水平.研究发现,2000年以来,我国农田生产力虽年际间存在波动,但总体呈现增长的态势,且区域差异性显著.农田生产力水平存在从沿海到内陆、从南向北及从东向西的递减的梯度,而局部地区农田生产力变化明显,表现出明显的东西分异规律,其次是南北分异规律.而对各个地区农田生产力平均值统计发现,东部沿海地区与南部省份的农田生产力要高于内陆省份,西部地区农田生产力普遍低于东部和中部地区.2000、2005、2010年全国分县统计的粮食产量数据与动态估算结果进行精度验证,其相关系数分别达到0.82、0.76和0.89,实际产量为估算结果的69.4％、73.4％、67.2％,较好的反映了我国农田生产力的基本状况.最后,基于我国农田生产力时空变化规律和局部差异性特征,以及我国经济区水平上的中国农田生产力的变化规律,从耕地数量保障、农业管理和投入水平提高以及适宜的农业区划方面,提出适宜于我国自然环境状况和社会经济发展的农田生产力保障策略,对保障我国的农田生产力的稳定增长方面的规划决策与政策制定具有参考价值.
수착인구증가화인문생활수평적불단제고,아국양식소비수구장계속정강성증장,사득양식품충화구역결구성모순가극,이양식산능적동태평고능구양아문가심인식아국양식공수평형,대제정괄의우아국경제사회발전동시보장양식안전적양식가지속발전전략구유중요의의.논문선취농전생산력작위아국양식산능적지표,통과개진농업생태지대（AEZ）모형,동태감입불동현역수평적관리화투입수평적한제성인자,집성현급절면수거고계투입계수권중,병기우차고산료전국2000-2010년간농전생산력수평.연구발현,2000년이래,아국농전생산력수년제간존재파동,단총체정현증장적태세,차구역차이성현저.농전생산력수평존재종연해도내륙、종남향북급종동향서적체감적제도,이국부지구농전생산력변화명현,표현출명현적동서분이규률,기차시남북분이규률.이대각개지구농전생산력평균치통계발현,동부연해지구여남부성빈적농전생산력요고우내륙성빈,서부지구농전생산력보편저우동부화중부지구.2000、2005、2010년전국분현통계적양식산량수거여동태고산결과진행정도험증,기상관계수분별체도0.82、0.76화0.89,실제산량위고산결과적69.4％、73.4％、67.2％,교호적반영료아국농전생산력적기본상황.최후,기우아국농전생산력시공변화규률화국부차이성특정,이급아국경제구수평상적중국농전생산력적변화규률,종경지수량보장、농업관리화투입수평제고이급괄의적농업구화방면,제출괄의우아국자연배경상황화사회경제발전적농전생산력보장책략,대보장아국적농전생산력적은정증장방면적규화결책여정책제정구유삼고개치.
With increasing population and improving living standards,grain consumption demand in China will continue to grow rigidly,consequently intensify the regional structural contradictions of grain supply.Scientifically dynamic assessment for grain productivity would be able to acquire a good understanding of the present situation of China＇ s grain production capacity,which is important to make the strategy suitable for the development of economy development and food security.Aiming at estimating the grain productivity under different local management strategies and input levers,this paper enhanced the core model of AEZ,set up transaction function between potential grain productivity and grain productivity.The result of dynamic assessment of the nationwide grain production during 2000-2010 shows,since 2000,although there exists annual fluctuation of the agricultural land productivity,the national average level of grain production experienced a slight increase,with the obvious regional difference.There is a decreasing gradient of grain productivity from the coastal areas to inland,from south to North and from east to west,with obvious change within regions,represented an east to west territorial differentiation,and then the south to north.In the light of regional agricultural productivity analysis,the grain productivity in the eastern coastal region and the southern provinces are higher than inland provinces,while the west regions is lower than the middle and east regions.Compared with the county lever grain production statistics data in 2000,2005 and 2010,the correlation coefficient is 0.82,0.76 and 0.89,respectively,and the realistic grain production accounts for 69.4％,73.4％ and 67.2％ of the simulated value,which could be a well reflection of the agricultural land productivity.At last,based on the characteristics of the temporal and spatial variation and local differences in China＇ s grain productivity,as well as eight economic zones in China,grain production security strategies,that in terms of agricultural land protection,agricultural management and input lever improvement,as well as suitable agricultural zoning planing,are proposed to maintain the natural environment and regional social and economic development at the same time,which might provide some references for planning and policy-making to ensure a steady growth of grain productivity.