CAJ | 학술논문

西部地区是我国乃至亚洲的重要生态屏障.因此,遏制由于长期过牧导致的草地退化,保障西部地区生态系统功能,促进西部地区畜牧业和经济社会可持续发展具有重要的研究意义.本研究以宁夏回族自治区作为典型区,收集了宁夏土地利用数据、自然环境数据和社会经济数据,创建了联立方程组模型,研究了自然环境条件和社会经济因素对草地过牧与退牧过程的驱动机制.驱动分析结果显示对于草地过牧过程,气候因素是草地面积退化的重要影响因素,人口压力也在这一过程中起着决定性作用,交通条件较发达的地区,人类活动较频繁,对于草地生态系统破坏也相对较严重;而宁夏退牧过程的主要驱动因素之一是区域原有生态环境,经济要素也是决定退牧意愿的重要影响因素,国家政策是退牧过程的外在推动因素.基于宁夏土地利用规划和1PCC公布的RCPs情景数据,设计估算了规划情景和气候情景下的土地利用需求,然后基于草地动态演变的驱动机理,本文应用土地系统动态（DLS）模拟系统预测了2010-2030年在RCPs情景和规划情景下研究区域草地面积和草地质量的空间分布特征和变化趋势.研究结果表明,规划情景下,研究区域草地面积随时间呈逐渐减少的态势,AIM气候模式下草地面积的变化态势与规划情景相似,但是减少的幅度比规划情景小,而MESSAGE气候模式情景下草地面积变化呈先减少后有小幅增加的态势.三种情景下,草地面积减少的区域主要集中在低密度草区,部分是在中密度草区.总的来看,无论是哪种情景,未来2010-2030年过牧与退牧这种相逆的现象不断减弱,但是并没有消失.这些研究结论将为西部干旱区生态环境保护、草地资源开发利用与保护、畜牧业发展规划提供重要的决策参考信息.
서부지구시아국내지아주적중요생태병장.인차,알제유우장기과목도치적초지퇴화,보장서부지구생태계통공능,촉진서부지구축목업화경제사회가지속발전구유중요적연구의의.본연구이저하회족자치구작위전형구,수집료저하토지이용수거、자연배경수거화사회경제수거,창건료련립방정조모형,연구료자연배경조건화사회경제인소대초지과목여퇴목과정적구동궤제.구동분석결과현시대우초지과목과정,기후인소시초지면적퇴화적중요영향인소,인구압력야재저일과정중기착결정성작용,교통조건교발체적지구,인류활동교빈번,대우초지생태계통파배야상대교엄중;이저하퇴목과정적주요구동인소지일시구역원유생태배경,경제요소야시결정퇴목의원적중요영향인소,국가정책시퇴목과정적외재추동인소.기우저하토지이용규화화1PCC공포적RCPs정경수거,설계고산료규화정경화기후정경하적토지이용수구,연후기우초지동태연변적구동궤리,본문응용토지계통동태（DLS）모의계통예측료2010-2030년재RCPs정경화규화정경하연구구역초지면적화초지질량적공간분포특정화변화추세.연구결과표명,규화정경하,연구구역초지면적수시간정축점감소적태세,AIM기후모식하초지면적적변화태세여규화정경상사,단시감소적폭도비규화정경소,이MESSAGE기후모식정경하초지면적변화정선감소후유소폭증가적태세.삼충정경하,초지면적감소적구역주요집중재저밀도초구,부분시재중밀도초구.총적래간,무론시나충정경,미래2010-2030년과목여퇴목저충상역적현상불단감약,단시병몰유소실.저사연구결론장위서부간한구생태배경보호、초지자원개발이용여보호、축목업발전규화제공중요적결책삼고신식.
Western China plays an important role as the ecological barrier of China and even Asia.It is of great significance to study how to restrain the grassland degradation caused by the long-term overgrazing to guaranteeing the ecosystem functions of western China and promoting the sustainable development of the local animal husbandry and social economy in western China.With the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region as the study area,the authors collected the land use data,natural environment data and social-economic data of the study area,and then analyzed the influence of natural environment conditions and socioeconomic factors on the process of grassland overgrazing and returning grazing land to grassland by constructing the simultaneous equation model.The results show that the climate factors played an important role in influencing the grassland degradation,and the population pressure also had impacts on this process to some extent.The intense human activities in the region with good traffic conditionsled toserious damage for the grassland ecosystem.As for the process of returning the grassland to other kinds of land in the study area,the original regional ecological environment is one of the main driving factors,and the economic factors also have significant effects on the will of returning grassland to other kinds of land,while the national policy is the major external motivating factor.This study estimated the land use demand under the planning scenario and climate scenario on the basis of the land use planning and RCPs scenario data published by IPCC.Then the authors simulated the changing trend of the grassland area in the study area during 2010-2030 under the climate scenario of RCPs and planning scenario with the dynamic land system software （DLS） based on the driving mechanism of dynamics of grassland.The results indicate that the local grassland will gradually decrease as the time going under the planning scenario,and it shows a similar changing trend under the AIM climate scenario,but with smaller decreasing rate.By comparison,the grassland area will firstly decrease and then slightly increase under the MESSAGE climate scenario.The grassland area will mainly decrease in the regions of low-density grasslands under all the three scenarios,and partly in the regions of medium-density grasslands.In summary,the two opposite phenomena,overgrazing and returning grasslands to other kinds of land will be weakened during the 2010-2030under all the scenarios,but they will not disappear.The results can provide significant reference information for the decision-making on the ecological environmental protection,utilization and conservation of the grasslands and the animal husbandry planning in the western arid region of China.