CAJ | 학술논문

选用9省（区）、18县、2430户样本农户的2003年和2007～2011年定点跟踪调查数据，利用二分类Logistic模型和多元线性回归模型分析集体林权制度改革实施后影响农户林地流转意愿因素及程度。结果显示：林改是否完成、采伐指标是否容易获批、是否参加森林保险、是否有造林补助、林地面积、非农劳动力投入比重和人均年收入对农户的林地流入意愿及规模有显著性影响。而林改是否完成、采伐指标是否容易获批、是否有林权交易中心、林地面积和非农劳动力投入比重等因素对林地流出意愿及规模有显著性影响。针对林权证发放、拓宽森林保险和加大对林业信贷支持力度等配套改革措施提出政策性建议。
선용9성（구）、18현、2430호양본농호적2003년화2007～2011년정점근종조사수거，이용이분류Logistic모형화다원선성회귀모형분석집체림권제도개혁실시후영향농호임지류전의원인소급정도。결과현시：림개시부완성、채벌지표시부용역획비、시부삼가삼림보험、시부유조림보조、임지면적、비농노동력투입비중화인균년수입대농호적임지류입의원급규모유현저성영향。이림개시부완성、채벌지표시부용역획비、시부유림권교역중심、임지면적화비농노동력투입비중등인소대임지류출의원급규모유현저성영향。침대림권증발방、탁관삼림보험화가대대임업신대지지력도등배투개혁조시제출정책성건의。
This paper uses a panel dataset that covers 2430 households of 16 counties in 9 provinces for 6 years （2003＆2007 - 2011）, examing the impact factors and individual level on forest land flow after the reform of collec- tive forest property right with the Logistic model and Multiple regression model respectively. The results show that the complete of reform, the approval of logging target, participation of forestry insurance, forestation subsidy, forest land area, the ratio of non-farm labor and per capita income all have significant effects on forest land inflow, while the complete of reform, the approval of logging target, the existence of forest property transaction agency,forest land area, the ratio of non-farm labor and per capita income are related to forest land outflow.All of these give us some policy implication that granting the certificate of forest property, expanding the insurance cover and increasing the forest credit support.