CAJ | 학술논문

经济发展受到环境的制约越来越明显，可持续发展越来越重要。根据经济可持续发展理论，依据层次分析方法构建山东省经济可持续发展能力指标体系．并利用主成分分析、数据包络分析的研究方法对指标体系进行研究．得到以下结论：山东省近13年经济发展处于最优发展轨迹、劣于最优发展轨迹均为5年，总体向最优发展轨迹移动；经济弱劣于最优发展轨迹的原因是投入规模的相对不足；经济劣于最优发展轨迹则是环境成本、能源及资源消耗过大．经济增长、人民生活水平产出不足造成的；规模适度是经济健康和可持续发展的必要条件。合理的产业结构有助于促进经济的可持续发展。
경제발전수도배경적제약월래월명현，가지속발전월래월중요。근거경제가지속발전이론，의거층차분석방법구건산동성경제가지속발전능력지표체계．병이용주성분분석、수거포락분석적연구방법대지표체계진행연구．득도이하결론：산동성근13년경제발전처우최우발전궤적、렬우최우발전궤적균위5년，총체향최우발전궤적이동；경제약렬우최우발전궤적적원인시투입규모적상대불족；경제렬우최우발전궤적칙시배경성본、능원급자원소모과대．경제증장、인민생활수평산출불족조성적；규모괄도시경제건강화가지속발전적필요조건。합리적산업결구유조우촉진경제적가지속발전。
It is increasingly obvious that the economic development has been restricted by the environment; sustainable development is more and more important in China. Depending on the theory of sustainable development and the analytic hierarchy process, we construct the Shandong Province capability of sustainable development index system and use the main component analysis, data envelopment analysis to research the input-output system. This paper draws the following conclusions： It still has the ability of sustainable development. Its 3 years＇ weakly inferior to the optimal trajectory （TOT } is due to the scale of investment relatively insufficient ; the reason of 5 years inferior to TOT is too much environmental costs, excessive consumption of energy and resources, and littte economic growth, low people＇s living level output. Moderate scale-inputs improves sustainable development. Reasonable industrial layout and optimizational industrial structure, contributes to sustainable socio-eeonomic development.