CAJ | 학술논문

本文运用IS—LM—BP模型探讨离岸市场发展对货币发行国货币政策的影响机制，研究人民币跨境套利、套汇行为的主体范围、渠道的变化及其对内地利率水平、汇率水平和货币供应量的影响，利用动态随机一般均衡模型测算了香港人民币离岸市场发展对内地货币政策影响的效应强度。研究结果表明：从短期来看，香港人民币离岸市场对内地货币政策的影响相当有限；从长期来看，随着香港人民币离岸市场规模的扩大以及境外人民币回流渠道的增加，香港人民币离岸市场对内地货币政策将会产生实质性的影响。为此，当前，可以进一步增加内地向香港注入人民币资金，扩大香港离岸人民币资金池规模。同时，要完善跨境人民币资金流动监测和管理机制，强化主体管理和账户管理，采取分类管理措施，尽量使香港人民币离岸市场对内地货币政策的影响保持在可控范围内。
본문운용IS—LM—BP모형탐토리안시장발전대화폐발행국화폐정책적영향궤제，연구인민폐과경투리、투회행위적주체범위、거도적변화급기대내지리솔수평、회솔수평화화폐공응량적영향，이용동태수궤일반균형모형측산료향항인민폐리안시장발전대내지화폐정책영향적효응강도。연구결과표명：종단기래간，향항인민폐리안시장대내지화폐정책적영향상당유한；종장기래간，수착향항인민폐리안시장규모적확대이급경외인민폐회류거도적증가，향항인민폐리안시장대내지화폐정책장회산생실질성적영향。위차，당전，가이진일보증가내지향향항주입인민폐자금，확대향항리안인민폐자금지규모。동시，요완선과경인민폐자금류동감측화관리궤제，강화주체관리화장호관리，채취분류관리조시，진량사향항인민폐리안시장대내지화폐정책적영향보지재가공범위내。
This paper uses IS-LM-BP Model to analyze the impact of the offshore market development on the currency issuing country＇s monetary policy making. It also focuses on the cross-border RMB arbitrage＇s participants, channel, and its impact on the mainland＇s interest rate and exchange rate. Besides, the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is used in this paper to estimate the the development effect of Hong Kong＇s offshore RMB market on the mainland. The result shows that in the short term, Hong Kong＇s offshore RMB market will have limited impact on the mainland＇s monetary policy making; in the long run, as Hong Kong＇s offshore RMB market expansion, as well as the increase of offshore RMB＇s back channels, Hong Kong＇s offshore RMB market may have substantial impact on the mainland＇s monetary policy making. Currently, China carl increase the injection of RMB funds from mainland to Hong Kong, to expand the pool of Hong Kong＇s offshore RMB funds. Meanwhile, a developed, mature cross-border RMB liquidity monitoring and management mechanism should be built immediately, and several other steps need to be taken to make sure that the impact of Hong Kong＇s offshore RMB market on the mainland is appropriate, and under control.