CAJ | 학술논문

基于扩展Solow增长框架，本文采用空间Durbin模型对长江中游城市群40个城市2001—2012年经济增长的影响因素进行实证分析。主要发现：人力资本和FDI对所在城市经济增长具有显著正向效应，其中FDI的效应有增强趋势，但二者的空间溢出效应为负；控制空间效应后，长江中游城市群各城市增长依然具有β条件收敛趋势，但收敛速度较慢；城市间增长存在显著的且随时间增强的空间竞争效应即负的空间外部性，FDI的进入加剧了这一效应；劳动力增长对本地城市增长影响不显著，但存在正向空间外部性。上述发现对于长江中游城市群推进协同发展具有重要政策意义。
기우확전Solow증장광가，본문채용공간Durbin모형대장강중유성시군40개성시2001—2012년경제증장적영향인소진행실증분석。주요발현：인력자본화FDI대소재성시경제증장구유현저정향효응，기중FDI적효응유증강추세，단이자적공간일출효응위부；공제공간효응후，장강중유성시군각성시증장의연구유β조건수렴추세，단수렴속도교만；성시간증장존재현저적차수시간증강적공간경쟁효응즉부적공간외부성，FDI적진입가극료저일효응；노동력증장대본지성시증장영향불현저，단존재정향공간외부성。상술발현대우장강중유성시군추진협동발전구유중요정책의의。
Based on the extended Solow growth framework, and using spatial Durbin model, the paper carried out empirical analysis of factors influencing the economic growth of 40 cities in the urban agglomeration of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River （UAMYR） over the period 2001 -2012. The findings are： significant positive impacts of human capital and FDI on the local city＇s growth exist, among which FDI effect increases over time, while spatial spillovers of human and FDI on growth present negatively ; after controlling spatial effects, it still shows 13 conditional convergence in economic growth of UAMYR although the speed of convergence is slower; significant and increasing spatial competitive effects i.e. negative spatial externalities exist between the growth of cities and the inflow of FDI raises the effects ; labor growth has no significant impacts on local cities＇ economic growth though it produces positive spatial externalities. The results here suggest important policy implications for UAMYR to promote coordinated development.