CAJ | 학술논문

目前国内对隐性债务问题模型的研究,大都集中于封闭系统内,不能有效的反映投保面扩张等人口变化对隐性债务的动态影响.本文在总结国内外相关研究的基础上,利用代际核算方法,对我国养老保险金封闭系统内的隐性债务和开放系统内的隐性债务进行建模测算；分析测算结果,得出若不考虑新参保者的影响,“中人”的缴费远远不能满足自身养老金发放的需要,若把扩大参保面当成解决隐性债务的方法来考虑,则是否有效,关键还得看工资增长率等影响因素是否在合理范围；最后,分别从体制内和体制外两方面给出解决隐性债务问题的相关建议.
목전국내대은성채무문제모형적연구,대도집중우봉폐계통내,불능유효적반영투보면확장등인구변화대은성채무적동태영향.본문재총결국내외상관연구적기출상,이용대제핵산방법,대아국양로보험금봉폐계통내적은성채무화개방계통내적은성채무진행건모측산；분석측산결과,득출약불고필신삼보자적영향,“중인”적격비원원불능만족자신양로금발방적수요,약파확대삼보면당성해결은성채무적방법래고필,칙시부유효,관건환득간공자증장솔등영향인소시부재합리범위；최후,분별종체제내화체제외량방면급출해결은성채무문제적상관건의.
Currently, in our country,people study the model of implicit debt mostly in a closed can not effectively reflect the dynamic effects arising by the insured surface expansion of demographic system which changes to the implicit debt. On the basis of a summary about the research home and abroad, using the generational accounting, this paper estimates the implicit debt of the pension insurance within the closed or open system and comes to two conclusions ： If not considering the impact of the new enrollee, the contribution of participators will be far from covering the needs of their future pension benefits;If expanding enrollment surface is considered as a way to solve the implicit debt, the key to keep this method effective is keeping the wage growth rate and other factors within reasonable limits. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to solve the implicit debt problems both from within the system and outside the system.