软科学
軟科學
연과학
Soft Science
2013年
10期
1~4
,共null页
保障性住房 商品房价格 土地挤出 刚性需求吸收 VAR模型
保障性住房 商品房價格 土地擠齣 剛性需求吸收 VAR模型
보장성주방 상품방개격 토지제출 강성수구흡수 VAR모형
affordable housing; commercial housing price; land extrusion; rigid demand absorption; VAR model.
构建了“刚性需求吸收”和“土地挤出”的代理变量,建立了保障性住房对商品房价格影响的VAR模型.滞后4阶的自回归结果和脉冲响应结果显示：土地挤出量对商品房价格确有正向影响;刚性需求吸收量对商品房价格确有负向影响;二者都与商品房价格存在Granger因果关系;在短期内,刚性需求吸收对商品房价的平抑作用更显著;长远来看,土地挤占对商品房价格的提升作用比刚性需求吸收导致的抑制作用更持久.
構建瞭“剛性需求吸收”和“土地擠齣”的代理變量,建立瞭保障性住房對商品房價格影響的VAR模型.滯後4階的自迴歸結果和脈遲響應結果顯示：土地擠齣量對商品房價格確有正嚮影響;剛性需求吸收量對商品房價格確有負嚮影響;二者都與商品房價格存在Granger因果關繫;在短期內,剛性需求吸收對商品房價的平抑作用更顯著;長遠來看,土地擠佔對商品房價格的提升作用比剛性需求吸收導緻的抑製作用更持久.
구건료“강성수구흡수”화“토지제출”적대리변량,건립료보장성주방대상품방개격영향적VAR모형.체후4계적자회귀결과화맥충향응결과현시：토지제출량대상품방개격학유정향영향;강성수구흡수량대상품방개격학유부향영향;이자도여상품방개격존재Granger인과관계;재단기내,강성수구흡수대상품방개적평억작용경현저;장원래간,토지제점대상품방개격적제승작용비강성수구흡수도치적억제작용경지구.
This paper builds the proxy variable of ＇ rigid demand absorption＇ and ＇ land extrusion＇ , and builds a VAR model. The auto-regression results with 4-order lag and the impulse response. The result shows that： land extrusion can truly raise the price of commercial housing; rigid demand absorption can truly reduce the price of commercial housing; both of them are the Granger relationships; in the short time, the effect from rigid demand absorption is severer than that from land extrusion, but in the long run, the effect from land extrusion is severer than that from rigid demand absorption instead.
