CAJ | 학술논문

中国作为最大的外汇储备持有国，大量外汇配置于美国国债市场，在短期内频繁进行买卖操作并不断增持．这些投资行为背后的动因值得探究。本文从资产组合理论出发．结合外汇储备币种选择的研究结果，通过实证分析发现：中国对美国国债的投资行为存在显著的历史惯性特征，且该因素起着主导作用;在中国对外贸易活动中，结算币种的选择也会显著影响对美国国债的投资;美元资产的基准收益率会显著影响外汇储备中对美国国债的配置;而人民币汇率的长期变化趋势和货币当局对人民币汇率干预动机对美国国债的投资行为没有相对稳健的解释力。
중국작위최대적외회저비지유국，대량외회배치우미국국채시장，재단기내빈번진행매매조작병불단증지．저사투자행위배후적동인치득탐구。본문종자산조합이론출발．결합외회저비폐충선택적연구결과，통과실증분석발현：중국대미국국채적투자행위존재현저적역사관성특정，차해인소기착주도작용;재중국대외무역활동중，결산폐충적선택야회현저영향대미국국채적투자;미원자산적기준수익솔회현저영향외회저비중대미국국채적배치;이인민폐회솔적장기변화추세화화폐당국대인민폐회솔간예동궤대미국국채적투자행위몰유상대은건적해석력。
As the largest foreign exchange reserves holder, China holds large scale of U.S. Treasury bonds and adjusts its position frequently in the short term. The motivation of these actions is worth exploring. Through the empirical analysis in this paper, we find that： the investment behavior of U.S. Treasury bonds is largely explained by the past behavior; trade link has significant effects on the holding of U.S. Treasury bonds, and the higher the proportion of US dollar dominated trade, the more U.S. Treasury bonds are held; the benchmark return of US dollar dominated asset has significant effect on the holding of U.S. Treasury bonds. However, we cannot conclude that the US dollar depreciation in the long run and the need of exchange rate intervention have remarkable effect on the holding of U.S. Treasury bonds.